Liam Heslin (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. For each UFC event, he produces the MMA DFS and sports betting breakdown for RotoGrinders. Read below for his in-depth analysis on UFC Fight Night – Adesanya vs. Pyfer.
The UFC is headed back to Seattle after a floundering offering across the pond. Former Champion combat sports superstar Israel “The Last Stylebender” Adesanya looks to hold off the oncoming American they known as “Bodybagz” Joe Pyfer. Throughout the card, Washington natives and locals will look to defend home turf, including a retiring Michael Chiesa, who will bid the cage farewell after his 22nd UFC appearance. The card will start with a bang as the surging Alexia Thainara looks to avenge her only career loss against Bruna Brasil. Will Thainara earn her twelfth straight win, or will Bruna Brasil spring the massive upset as an underdog?
Editor’s Note: Analysis for remaining fights is coming soon!
Note: All DFS salaries listed are from DraftKings & all odds quoted are from FanDuel Sportsbook.
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer – MMA DFS Picks & Betting Breakdown
Alexia Thainara ($9,600) vs. Bruna Brasil ($6,600)
Fight Odds: -750 Thainara vs. +460 Brasil
Weight Class: W115lb. (Women’s Strawweight)
Alexia Thainara (2-0 UFC) and Bruna Brasil (3-4 UFC) last fought seven years ago in 2019, with Brasil getting the win via 3rd-round submission due to a standing guillotine choke. At the time, Thainara was 21 years old (compared to 36 for Brasil) making the walk for the third time as a professional. Now, Thainara enters this rematch riding an 11-fight winning streak that dates back to October of 2020. “Burguesinha” has been nothing short of impressive in the octagon. If you combine her first 2 UFC fights and her contract-winning performance on DWCS, Thainara has landed 156 significant strikes and 9 takedowns on 15 attempts. She has also secured 15+ minutes of control time as well as a submission finish on 4 credited submission attempts. While she may be a bit wild on the feet, she lands punches, she chops away with hard calf kicks, and she attempts a variety of takedowns, including leg attacks, trips, and upper body throws.
Bruna Brasil has had a very stop-start career in the UFC. She looked great on DWCS when she outclassed and eventually headkicked Marnic Mann into the shadow realm to claim a contract. Since then, she has a win-one-lose-one pattern that saw her earn three unanimous decision victories against Molly McCann (7-7 UFC), Shauna Bannon (2-2 UFC), and Shi Ming (1-1 UFC). The McCann fight was her best performance by far, as she nearly finished McCann with strikes several times in round 1, she used her counter wrestling and grappling to end rounds on top, and she waltzed to a 30-27 on foreign soil. Brasil has also had really disappointing performances in the UFC, where she is rendered defensive, looking like a deer in headlights, allowing her opponents to get ahead on the strike count while she retreats towards safer ground. At her best, Brasil has nasty kicks including tepes, round kicks to the head and body, and brutal intercepting knees (that often go low FWIW). Her lack of confidence is her biggest hindrance.
The best version of Bruna Brasil could compete in this fight because she is long and awkward, she is a decent range manager, she has intercepting tools, and she not only submitted Thainara last time they fought, but she was also up 2 rounds to zero on the judges’ scorecards (in my humble opinion). Thainara has made the much more obvious improvements since, and she is 2-0 against common opponents while Brasil is just 1-1 with a loss against Lookboonmee (7-3 UFC) that looks particularly awful juxtaposed with Thainara’s dominant victory over Loma in her most recent fight. Unless Brasil is able to find sustained success at kicking range, she is likely to get walked down and taken down by Thainara. I expect this fight to be more competitive than the line entails, but I have to pick the more consistent fighter who puts out more offense to judge.
Prediction: Alexia Thainara defeats Bruna Brasil via DEC or Either Woman via Finish
Ricky Simon ($8,600) vs. Adrian Yanez ($7,600)
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About the Author
Liam (aka LiamPicksFights) is a massive combat sports fan with over a decade of experience competing in wrestling and grappling martial arts. Each week, he produces original content about the world of mixed martial arts from a betting perspective alongside an ever-changing panel of guest handicappers. When he’s not handicapping fights or producing content, he’s training jiu-jitsu, coaching youth wrestling, or daydreaming about doing one of the former. Follow Liam on Twitter – @LiamPicksFights
