One of the biggest misconceptions in baseball is that teams without highly ranked farm systems have no prospects to offer in trade deadline deals. In fact, every organization has prospects other teams covet — even those with the bottom-ranked farms — and if a team is determined to make a deal, a deal can usually be had. That said, it’s far easier for teams to land their top trade targets if they have a larger pool of attractive prospects to deal from, and it’s easier for those teams to part with talented prospects when they have more in the pipeline.
So, which contenders are best positioned to make a big move at the deadline based on the strength of their farm systems? Looking at Keith Law’s recently released top-50 list, a few stand out amongst the crowd. What follows is not a list of players these organizations would be willing to deal, but it is a demonstration of the depth of their systems. Even if these clubs opt to hold onto their most prized prospects, their second-tier prospects should still be strong enough to make a match come the deadline.
Deadline trades involving current top-100 prospects aren’t overly common, but they can occur when two teams’ situations align. The deal that sent Juan Soto to the Padres is one example. Last year’s trades involving Max Scherzer and Justin Verlander are two others. So depending on how the deadline unfolds and the star players who become available, we could see another such deal this July.
(Note: All stats through Monday, June 10.)
Number of top-50 prospects: 5
The Mariners were the biggest gainers in Law’s latest update to his top prospect list, with two prospects joining the top 50 who weren’t even on the preseason top 100 (Felnin Celesten and Jonny Farmelo). They were the only prospects to join the top 50 who weren’t on the original top 100 list. Top prospect Colt Emerson also made a big move, jumping from 37 to 10, while Cole Young and Harry Ford made significant jumps.
Seattle would appear to be in a prime buying position. With a young, talented pitching staff and star Julio Rodríguez signed to a long-term deal, the Mariners’ contention window isn’t likely to close anytime soon. Nevertheless, with the Astros and Rangers struggling and the A’s and Angels among the league’s worst teams, there’s never been a more wide open path for the Mariners to take home the AL West title.
They may win it even if they don’t significantly add at the deadline, but their chances of actually competing for a World Series title will be dependent on improving an offense that has been among the worst in baseball. They already fired offensive coordinator/bench coach Brant Brown, but on-field upgrades are likely to have a bigger impact. So look for Seattle to be buyers.
The Mariners may not be willing to trade any of their top-five prospects — though no one in a Jerry Dipoto system should be considered untouchable — but there is depth even beyond the top guys. With Emerson, Young and Celestin all shortstops, the Mariners might be willing to part with Michael Arroyo, who came into the season ranked fourth in their system. The 19-year-old is currently in Low A and has already set a career-high in home runs while also reaching base at an above-average clip.
Jeter Martinez was a high-profile international signing last January. (Courtesy of the Seattle Mariners)
That Low-A Modesto roster is stacked with intriguing prospects. Along with Young, Farmelo and Arroyo, Modesto features Tai Peete, last year’s 30th overall pick, who’s performing well in his age-18 season, and Cuban slugger Lazaro Montes, 19, who has a .985 OPS. Other high-upside prospects in the Mariners system include right-handers Jeter Martinez (3.18 ERA in 17 Rookie-level innings) and Walter Ford, the 74th pick in the 2022 draft.
In the upper levels, right-hander Emerson Hancock, the No. 6 pick in 2020, could intrigue teams despite his uneven results in the big leagues, especially since he’s performed well in Triple A. Switch-hitter Jonatan Clase is one of their best upper-level hitting prospects and the Mariners need offense, but he showed that he needs more polish in a brief MLB stint and may not be the answer for them this season. Recently promoted corner infielder Tyler Locklear can really hit, but potentially could be used in a deal for an established offensive upgrade. Right-hander Jimmy Joyce began the year on the injured list but is building up slowly in Double A and is off to a strong start.
Number of top-50 prospects: 4
The Orioles are a near-lock for the postseason but will have to overcome the New York Yankees to claim another AL East title. It’s a deep, young and talented roster, but there are some holes — especially on the pitching side — that are likely to be addressed.
No, the Orioles are not going to entertain offers for Jackson Holliday. But even with Holliday off the table and Joey Ortiz traded to the Milwaukee Brewers as part of the Corbin Burnes deal this offseason, Baltimore still has more than enough talent in its system to make almost any deal it would want to and still have plenty of prospects left over.
The Orioles are particularly deep in infielders, which is why Holliday hasn’t yet received a second crack at the big leagues. Corner infielder Coby Mayo is the highest-profile infield prospect of the non-Holliday bunch. He’s currently on the IL, but with a career .932 OPS in 104 Triple-A games, Mayo seems major-league ready. Connor Norby, a second baseman/outfielder, recently got a call-up to Baltimore. His combination of power, decent speed and versatility could make him a coveted trade target for a team looking for major-league-ready talent.
Coby Mayo is prospect in need of an MLB opportunity. (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
Further down the depth chart, Samuel Basallo is one of the top catching prospects in baseball but is blocked by Adley Rutschman. Basallo, 19, is more than holding his own in Double A. He could be the Orioles’ best trade chip. Switch-hitting infielder Leandro Arias also offers significant upside.
The Orioles are also flush with outfield prospects, starting with Heston Kjerstad, who doesn’t appear to have anything left to prove in Triple A and needs an extended big-league opportunity. The O’s 2023 first-round pick, Enrique Bradfield Jr., doesn’t hit for power, but for teams that like speed and defense, he’s an attractive prospect. Dylan Beavers and Matthew Etzel are also intriguing outfield prospects off to good starts this season.
Baltimore’s system isn’t as deep in pitching, but the Orioles still have some interesting arms, including left-hander Cade Povich, who made his major-league debut last week. Right-hander Chayce McDermott has pitched well for Triple-A Norfolk this season and has a long track record of missing bats in the minor leagues. Right-hander Seth Johnson has a 2.75 ERA over 11 starts in his first full season back from Tommy John surgery at the Double-A level. Luis De León is further from the big leagues, but the 21-year-old left-hander has dominated at the A-ball levels and could reach Double A by the end of the season.
Number of top-50 prospects: 3
The Phillies are in win-now mode, as they’ve gotten oh-so-close to a title the last two seasons. They don’t have a lot of holes on their major-league roster, but where they do have needs, they should have the prospects to offer to try to fill them through trades.
Samuel Aldegheri is from Verona, Italy. (Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
One of the Phillies’ most intriguing sleeper prospects is right-hander George Klassen, a 2023 sixth-round pick out of Minnesota. Klassen came into pro ball with huge stuff but command issues. So far this season, he’s been ridiculously good — albeit at a lower level (Low A) than he probably should be pitching at given his age — with 0.71 ERA and a 57:12 K:BB in 38 innings. The 22-year-old was promoted to High A this week.
The Phillies have even more depth on the position player side, even beyond top-50 prospects Justin Crawford and Aidan Miller, whom they would likely be reluctant to deal. Shortstop Starlyn Caba signed in January 2023 for $3 million and has been an on-base machine this season. The switch-hitter has a .450 OBP and 22 stolen bases in 25 games in the Florida Complex League.
Outfielder Gabriel Rincones Jr. is currently out with a thumb injury but he had a 1.017 OPS in early-season action in Double A and hit 15 homers with 32 stolen bases in his pro debut season in 2023. His glove is ahead of his bat, but shortstop Bryan Rincon — currently in High A — is another intriguing prospect. Catcher Caleb Ricketts, who has an OBP above .400 at the Double-A level, could draw some trade interest.
Number of top-50 prospects: 3
The Dodgers are running away with the NL West but have seen the Phillies slip past them as the top team in the National League. Los Angeles’ 26-man roster is stacked at the top, but has shown some early-season cracks that president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman is likely to attempt to fill.
The Dodgers’ system is perennially among the best, and though trades, graduations and a few injuries have thinned it some, they still have plenty of prospects to offer if they want to make a significant deadline deal.
Josue De Paula has followed up a breakout 2023 season with an even better 2024 campaign. (Tracy Proffitt / Four Seam Images via Associated Press)
Top prospect Josue De Paula, 19, is repeating Low A for now, and has improved in nearly every offensive category. With more than 500 at-bats at that level under his belt, he could move to High A soon, raising his profile even higher. Top pitching prospect River Ryan missed the start of the season with a tired shoulder but is back on the mound making rehab starts, while catcher Dalton Rushing continues to get on base at an above-average rate while boosting his average significantly at the Double-A level.
Their upper-level prospect depth in general has been reduced by injuries, especially on the pitching side, though they are starting to get some of those pitchers back. Righty Kyle Hurt (preseason No. 11 Dodgers prospect) is no longer so aptly named, as he’s returned to the mound after missing two months with shoulder inflammation. Left-hander Ronan Kopp (No. 17) is starting to look more like himself with Double-A Tulsa after missing the start of the season with injury. Payton Martin (No. 8) was promoted to High A for the first time last week. He missed April because of an injury but was able to make six truncated starts in May in Low A before the promotion.
The Dodgers also have several emerging prospects in the lower levels that may intrigue teams. Shortstop Joendry Vargas, 18, is a 2023 international signing who has done nothing but hit at the Rookie-ball levels since turning pro last year. Former top prospect Diego Cartaya’s star may have fallen the last two years, but switch-hitting backstop Thayron Liranzo has shown promise in A ball. He’s currently with High-A Great Lakes. Left-hander Jackson Ferris, who was acquired from the Chicago Cubs in the Michael Busch deal, is a high upside arm. Ferris has battled command issues in High A but shown plus stuff and the ability to miss bats.
Others systems of note
Milwaukee Brewers: The NL Central-leading Brewers have only one player left in the top 50 (catcher Jeferson Quero, who is out for the year) with the graduations of Jackson Chourio and Joey Ortiz to the big leagues, but they still have plenty of talent if they want to make a deal.
Tyler Black was a preseason top-50 prospect and is a talented hitter in search of a big-league opportunity after he received just 22 at-bats in his first MLB stint this year. Hard-throwing right-hander Jacob Misiorowski is being kept on a tight leash in Double A and has struggled with his command, but his stuff is elite and he will intrigue a lot of teams if Milwaukee is willing to dangle him. And the Brewers’ good reputation for developing pitchers should make several of their pitching prospects attractive to other teams.
Their 2023 draft picks could elicit significant interest. Brock Wilken (first round) is already in Double A. Cooper Pratt (sixth round) is doing an excellent job getting on base as a 19-year-old in his pro debut. Eric Bitonti (third round) is showing significant power as he starts his age-18 season in Rookie ball.
New York Yankees: Jasson Domínguez is the Yankees only top-50 prospect and they aren’t likely to deal him, but the team’s strong start could make them more willing to part with other top prospects in deals, especially on the position-player side, such as outfielders Spencer Jones and Everson Pereira and catcher/first baseman Ben Rice, who was just promoted to Triple A. Catcher Agustin Ramirez is also opening eyes around the league.
The Yankees’ pitching depth has been thinned some by their offseason trades and injuries, but left-hander Brock Selvidge has pitched well in Double A and is just 21 years old. Massive 19-year-old lefty Henry Lalane — all 6-foot-7 of him — is on the IL but was the talk of spring training.
Cleveland Guardians: The surprise AL Central-leading Guardians don’t have any top-50 prospects after the graduations of Brayan Rocchio and Kyle Manzardo, but they still have a solid system — even with top prospect Chase Delauter’s struggles to stay healthy.
Jaison Chourio (brother of Jackson) has shown impressive on-base skills and plus speed in Low A. Catcher Ralphy Velazquez has looked exactly like the plus power prospect the Guardians were expecting when they took him in the first round last year out of high school. He’s hit seven home runs in 48 games in Low A this season. Alex Mooney, a seventh-round pick out of Duke last season, is showing impressive power and speed for High-A Lake County. Outfielder Johnathan Rodriguez has big power and enough Triple-A experience to jump into a non-contender’s lineup right away.
Like Milwaukee, Cleveland should benefit from its track record of strong development when teams consider its pitching prospects. Talented left-hander Joey Cantillo is back in Triple A after missing the start of the season with a hamstring strain. Unheralded lefty Matt “Tugboat” Wilkinson may be the biggest pop-up prospect of the year so far, and he continues to miss bats at a very high rate since moving up to High A. Right-hander Parker Messick — a 2022 second-round pick — is pitching well in High A and looks ready for a Double-A challenge.
Chicago Cubs: Unlike the other teams listed here, the Cubs are not in pole playoff position at the moment. But they are among a mess of teams who are as close (or closer) to the second NL wild-card spot as they are to a .500 record. (Parity may not be all it was cracked up to be.) And of those teams, the Cubs are perhaps the most likely to be aggressive as buyers given the investment they made in the offseason on free-agent acquisitions. That said, several of their top trade chips (Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matt Shaw and Cade Horton, in particular) are projected to be key cogs in their immediate future, so the Cubs aren’t likely to want to move those players.
Beyond that trio, however, the Cubs do still have some intriguing players they could make available. Outfielder Kevin Alcántara is struggling a bit as a 21-year-old in Double A, but his tools are electric and he still projects as a potential plus offensive player in the big leagues. He may be too talented for the Cubs to risk losing in a year when their World Series odds aren’t particularly strong, but they could consider dangling another 21-year-old in Double A, James Triantos, who has shown the ability to hit for average at every level since being drafted in the 2021 second round. He also has plus speed and can play second base and center field. Owen Caissie, a 21-year-old outfielder in Triple A, has a career OBP near .400 and he hit 22 home runs last season.
Catcher/first baseman Moises Ballesteros is another talented hitter on that Double-A Tennessee squad. The 20-year-old is a much better hitter than he is a receiver but, at 5-foot-7, is better suited for catcher than first base. Still, his ability to hit pitchers several years older than him will intrigue a lot of teams. Beyond Horton, the Cubs are light on top-tier pitching prospects, so in general they will match up better with teams looking for hitters.
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(Top image: Michael Arroyo, left: Tracy Proffitt / Four Seam Images via Associated Press; Samuel Basallo, right: Mike Janes / Four Seam Images via AP)
