Two yards.
That’s all I needed from Buffalo Bills superstar Josh Allen with just over two minutes left to go against the Kansas City Chiefs. But Allen decided he would rather rip off a 26-yard touchdown run and give Buffalo a 9-point victory.
RIP to my teaser with Chiefs +8.5.
I’ve got three college football bets and two NFL plays this weekend. Remember, this space isn’t the place for a million picks or five-team parlays. These will always be the games I love the most.
Let’s go to work.
2024 Record: (29-26, +0.4 units)
No. 6 Notre Dame (-14, O/U 45.5) vs. No. 19 Army
I’m going back to the well on Notre Dame. After taking a 35-0 lead against Virginia, the Irish defense turned down the tenacity and allowed the Cavs to secure a backdoor cover. Woof. Early money on ND-Army showed for the Black Knights, as Army opened +17 last Sunday and now the line is 14. I’m buying the dip and banking on Notre Dame’s “D” winning the day.
PICK: Notre Dame (-14) to win by more than 14 points
No. 15 Texas A&M (-2, O/U 46.5) @ Auburn
This line is fishy as hell. While most people are salivating over Texas A&M and Texas next Saturday, oddsmakers aren’t looking past Auburn. The first number posted in Vegas was A&M -1, and while it did get bet up right away, it proves the house respects the Tigers. Auburn, much like Florida and Kansas, continues to be underrated in the betting market, and I’m taking the points.
PICK: Auburn (+2) to lose by fewer than 2 points, or win outright
Northwestern @ Michigan (-10.5, O/U 36.5)
As a longtime Northwestern hater, this is such a Northwestern spot. Watch the Kitties find a way to beat the Wolverines in a super sleepy spot before Michigan-Ohio State and gloat about “beating the national champs” for the next three years. I digress. There’s no way I’m laying double digits with Michigan in a game that has all the makings of a 21-17 final score.
PICK: Northwestern (+10.5) to lose by fewer than 10.5 points, or win outright
Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers are BEST BETS in NFL Week 12
Lions (-7.5, O/U 50.5) @ Colts
The Lions keep winning and covering despite oddsmakers constantly raising their power rating. A wise man once said “good teams win, great teams cover.” Well, Detroit is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) and currently favored to win the Super Bowl. It continues to achieve week after week, which does nothing but make its spreads bigger. So, I’m willing to find out if the Colts can hang around.
PICK: Colts (+7.5) to lose by fewer than 7.5 points, or win outright
I will continue to bang the drum for the Eagles. I remember listening to Philadelphia sports radio powerhouse WIP six weeks ago, and one of their shows said the team wasn’t good enough to make the playoffs. Lol. The Eagles have quietly morphed into a top-six defense in the league, and we know how dangerous their offense is. Sorry Rams, back under .500 you go.
PICK: Eagles (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Sam Panayotovich is a sports betting analyst for FOX Sports and BetQL Network. He previously worked for WGN Radio, NBC Sports and VSiN. Follow him on Twitter @spshoot.
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