A lot goes into handicapping these NFL games. It’s a labor of love and an ever-evolving process.
Two weeks ago, I stumbled upon something that had worked in the past and appears to be back. And that’s giving long, hard looks at teams that did not cover the spread the week prior when they face teams that did cover the spread.
Two weeks ago, those matchups went 7-2; last week, 4-1-1.
This week, there are five of them left after the Falcons came through on Thursday.
You don’t want to bet these games blindly, but for me, it’s a great jumping off point.
(All times ET)
Sunday, Oct. 6
Jets @ Vikings (9:30 a.m., NFL Network)
The Vikings are the surprise of the season so far, and if you’re backing them here, you’re doing so at the top of the market.
This game was Jets -2.5 last week. It’s a 5-point swing. Not through a key number, I know, but worth it because the Jets played like garbage in the rain and the Vikings were up 28-0 on the Packers.
This will be the best secondary Sam Darnold has faced, and he has five turnover-worthy plays so far (Will Levis has six, Aaron Rodgers zero). One would assume the Jets load up the box, dare Darnold to test the best secondary in the NFL and rattle the Vikes’ quarterback.
New York didn’t prepare well for Denver’s heavy blitzes last week, which is embarrassing since the Broncos blitz at the highest rate in the league at 44%. But it would be a fireable offense for OC Nathanial Hackett if he isn’t ready for Minnesota this week. Brian Flores has blitzed by far the most in the NFL this season (82).
As the media closes in and gushes over the Vikings, the Jets win this outright.
PICK: Jets (+2.5) to lose by fewer than 2.5 points, or win outright
Give me the winless Jaguars here at home to finally get a victory.
Besides the Buffalo embarrassment, the Jags have been in three games deep into the fourth quarter and come up empty. That’s partially due to poor play-calling on high-leverage downs.
Indy will be without Jonathan Taylor, and as we write this, it’s unclear if Anthony Richardson will start at QB or if it’ll be Joe Flacco. The latter actually scares me more because of his accuracy on the short passes against this soft Jacksonville zone defense.
The Jags had been playing man all season, switched to zone last week, and it largely worked until Stroud destroyed it in the fourth.
Get the Colts off that fast indoor track and they slow down. The Jags are 8-0 straight up (SU) and 8-0 against the spread (ATS) in their last eight games vs. division rivals.
PICK: Jaguars (-3) to win by more than 3 points
Will Dak Prescott or Justin Fields perform better in Cowboys vs. Steelers?
Cowboys @ Steelers (8:20 p.m., NBC/Peacock)
Last week, the Steelers fell into a 17-0 hole against Indy and rallied to lose a close one. On Thursday Night Football, Dallas won and covered against the lowly Giants. Since that Cowboys win, they have lost their best two defensive players, DeMarcus Lawrence and Micah Parsons, and their No. 2 wide receiver, Brandin Cooks.
Expect Pittsburgh to scheme superstar edge rusher T.J. Watt up against rookie tackle Tyler Guyton, who is tied for second among linemen with seven penalties and tied for second in sacks allowed (4).
How desperate is the Dallas offense?
Looks like Dalvin Cook will be elevated from the practice squad for this game, as if Dallas will be able to run the ball. Short of a Justin Fields meltdown, this feels like the Steelers and, perhaps, comfortably.
PICK: Steelers (-2.5) to win by more than 2.5 points
Jason McIntyre is a FOX Sports betting analyst who also writes about the NFL and NBA Draft. Before arriving at FOX, he created the website The Big Lead. Follow him on Twitter @JasonRMcIntyre.
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