NFL season win totals are some of the most fun action to wager on — it’s a season-long gambit with week-to-week intensity because of how much every game matters for the final season record. With the explosion of legalized sports gambling, win totals have been out for a while now, but we can’t really get crystallized and concrete numbers until the NFL schedule is released.
With the schedule out and every angle of the 2024 NFL season under full scrutiny, we can finally get down to the business of betting season-long win totals. I’ll revisit these in August before the season begins but we’ll try and find some value earlier in the offseason.
I’m using DraftKings for win totals for ease of use but you should absolutely shop around and get the best number, so let’s break them down division by division. Check the rest of the divisions here as they’re released:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West
Before we dive in, a couple quick notes. One, we’re picking every team but not betting every team. Two, any best bets will be denoted in bold, etc. Three, you should probably avoid actually betting on overs at this point because of how quickly injuries can flip the fortunes of NFL teams.
Let’s get to it.
Over 10.5 (+112) / Under 10.5 (-130)
Personally I think the Bills are underrated this season relative to public perception. Everyone is treating the Bills like they’re gonna crater this year mainly because they lost Stefon Diggs. The losses on defense are substantially more concerning, although they did a nice job replenishing the cupboard in the offseason. Buffalo still has Josh Allen by the way, even if his weapons are depleted. It almost feels like the Bills saw the Chiefs win without a true No. 1 wide receiver and said “hey let’s try that too” even though they don’t need to play on All-Madden without a Super Bowl win in tow. If you count their playoff game loss to KC, the Bills went 6-7 in one score games, including two overtime losses. Their point differential suggested a 12-win team and they only won 11, so there’s some room for positive regression. Dalton Kincaid could be the focal point of the passing game and this may be an offense that runs the ball a lot more under Joe Brady as well. I’m leaning under at the current number and price but wouldn’t actually bet it right now.
Lean: Under 10.5 (-130)
Over 9.5 (-130) / Under 9.5 (+110)
Here we are again, with a 9.5-win total, although this time the offseason hype has been severely subdued. Last year it was nonstop Jets coverage right up until Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth snap of the season. And once again, it comes down to Rodgers health behind an offensive line that was questionable coming into the offseason before Joe Douglas added Tyron Smith and Morgan Moses to shore up the weak spot. The Jets GM wasn’t done — and it may speak to the health and contractual status of those free agents — adding Olu Fashanu with the team’s first-round pick. Fashanu starting the season at either LT or RT is either a really good or really bad thing, tbd. The defense should be stout once again and Garrett Wilson/Breece Hall taking another step forward as young skill position guys gives this team a real upside. But once again it’s all about Rodgers playing the entire season, which is why taking an over in May is simply too tough to do.
Lean: Under 9.5 (+110)
Over 9.5 (-135) / Under (+110)
A great example of why the schedule matters for win totals, the Miami Dolphins have started hot the last few years and should come out warm again in 2024. Tua Tagovailoa and Co. get three of their first four games at home, they’ve added more speed this offseason and should be an offensive force early on. But the schedule imbalance means the Fins are getting four or more games in cold weather after Nov. 1, something that’s plagued this team for the last few years. There are concerns with the pass rush early in the year thanks to late-season injuries to Bradley Chubb and Jaelen Phillips, and the team is implementing yet another new defensive scheme as well. Miami also lost Robert Hunt and Christian Wilkins in free agency; their absences could be felt on the offensive and defensive lines, respectively. I would lean over for Miami if it were September, but right now the number is too high, particularly with Tua’s contract status still up in the air.
Lean: Under 9.5 (+110)
Over 4.5 (-160) / Under 4.5 (+135)
The Patriots profile as one of the worst teams in all of football. New England is tied with the Panthers for the lowest win total across the league, in large part because of questions on offense. Drake Maye is on the roster as the No. 3 overall pick, but DraftKings has a “Week 1 starter” market with Jacoby Brissett installed as the heavy favorite, with the general consensus being Maye will sit for a while to start the season. Regardless of who’s under center, there are plenty of other issues. Kendrick Bourne and DeMario Douglas are the top pass catchers unless rookies Ja’Lynn Polk and Javon Baker step up in a big way. We’re talking a second- and fourth-round pick here. The offensive line is definitely a weak spot. Defensively the Patriots could be good as they have been over the last few years. Or — and hear me out — there could be a drop-off on defense (and across the board) with Bill Belichick leaving New England after a 20-plus year run. Belchick made plenty of mistakes in the last couple of years, particularly on offense, but let’s not pretend he isn’t an elite football coach. Alex Van Pelt should be an upgrade as the OC and NFL teams can stumble into five wins, so I’m not inclined to take the under here. But the over at this price is just unbettable especially without knowing who’ll be playing quarterback.
Lean: Under 4.5 (+135)
