For the second year in a row, the Final Four is populated by legacy programs with strong seeds.
Although this tournament fell short of all four No. 1 seeds making the Final Four like in 2025, the 2026 edition still brings together a quartet of championship pedigrees.
Arizona, Connecticut, Illinois and Michigan all maintain storied legacies in men’s basketball. Among the group, the Fighting Illini are the only school without a national title, and Illinois’ 50 NCAA Tournament wins are the second most of all time for a program without one (Purdue with 54).
All four teams are also playing at a high level in this tournament. Arizona, Illinois and Michigan all have won every game by double digits. And UConn’s incredible, instant-classic 19-point comeback to stun overall No. 1 seed Duke will live long in memory. Braylon Mullins’ unlikely game-winning 3-pointer will go down as one of the biggest shots in the history of March Madness.
College basketball’s final weekend sets up for some enticing matchups after a memorable season filled with changing favorites. Will a season-long favorite cut down the nets in Indianapolis? Or can a surprise contender peaking at the right time break through?
Arizona vs. Michigan pairs title favorites
The Arizona Wildcats (+165) and Michigan Wolverines (+180) are the two remaining No. 1 seeds left in the NCAA Tournament. The two teams are the two clear front-runners in the odds to win the national title.
With Duke’s unexpected exit, both Arizona and Michigan saw slight national title odds bumps before heading to Indianapolis.
Making their first Final Four appearance in 25 years, the Wildcats are the new favorites to claim a title after sitting behind the Wolverines following the tournament’s opening weekend. Arizona and Michigan have flip-flopped the top spot in BetMGM’s national title odds since the Wolverines took over as +700 favorites in late November.
Arizona briefly took control from Michigan as the favorite in January during its undefeated start, only to relinquish that back to the Wolverines after the Wildcats suffered back-to-back Big 12 losses in February.
Since then, Arizona has been riding a 13-game winning streak with eight of those wins against top-25 teams.
Interestingly, the odds for the game itself slightly favor Michigan, but by the slimmest of margins. The winner of that semifinal will be the clear favorite to win the national championship game two nights later against either opponent.
Illinois, UConn seek surprise title game berth
While the two Final Four matchups feel a little bit like an undercard-to-title-fight transition, counting out either Illinois or UConn in the title mix would be foolish.
The Fighting Illini (+475 to win the title) sport the nation’s most efficient offense according to KenPom and are peaking at the right time after some late-regular-season defensive lapses. Advancing from the South Region, Illinois is the first No. 3 seed to make it to the Final Four since Texas Tech in 2019.
A No. 3 seed hasn’t won a title since UConn in 2011 — and only four times total since tournament expansion to 64 teams in 1985 — but the Fighting Illini are superior compared to standard No. 3 seeds. Rated No. 4 overall in KenPom’s NET rankings, Illinois brings together a deep and talented roster filled with international flavor and unique skill sets.
Following its unexpected comeback victory over Duke in the Elite Eight, UConn (+550 to win the title) rounds out the national championship odds. Making its third Final Four appearance in four seasons after claiming back-to-back championships in 2023 and 2024, UConn brings veteran poise and a talented array of scorers.
Illinois is a 1.5-point favorite against UConn, which means both semifinals appear very evenly matched on paper.
Entering March Madness, Illinois was seventh in national title odds (+2000) while Connecticut was eighth (+2200). Although the winner of the opening national semifinal will be modest underdogs against Arizona or Michigan in the championship game, both the Fighting Illini and Huskies already toppled favorites on the way to the Final Four.
It’s also worth noting that seven of the last eight national champions in men’s basketball carried No. 1 seeds. The only exception? UConn’s win as a No. 4 seed in 2023.
