2026 NHL Draft Top-5 Scenarios: Maple Leafs Get McKenna & Sharks on the Chase – The Hockey Writers –

The balls are officially in, the picks are ready and the 2026 NHL Draft stage is set. Now, all that needs to be determined is which prospects are going where and who will make their picks and who will move them. For the next few weeks speculation will swirl and possible scenarios will be spit out from people outside each respective organization, while no one truly knows how the whole thing will play out.

With that in mind, over the next week, we will break down five possible scenarios of how the 2026 NHL Draft could go. From the number one pick to the fifth overall selection, we’ll answer the who and they why of what players could hear their name in the top five picks. Without further ado, here’s the first mock scenario with the Toronto Maple Leafs remaining on the clock with the first overall selection.

Maple Leafs Select McKenna First Overall

It’s still a bit of a two-horse race atop this season’s NHL Draft. That said, when it comes to pure talent, most would still suggest that the Maple Leafs take Penn State’s Gavin McKenna with the first overall selection.

The 18-year-old sees the game on another level, much like former Maple Leaf Mitch Marner. The difference between the two is that McKenna has a shot that he uses more often and that is quite deceptive. His hockey IQ is on a different level and aside from a slowish start to his freshman year in the NCAA, McKenna took his play to another level in the second half of the year.

For new Maple Leafs general manager, John Chayka, it’d be pretty tough to pass up on McKenna atop the draft – especially with rumours swirling around Auston Matthews‘ future with the franchise. If the team can start off the new tenure by adding a player of this calibre to their lineup right off the hop, they’ll be in good shape for a strong re-tooling on the go or a full rebuild if the new management teams decides to go that route.

Sharks Draft Chase Reid Second Overall

In this scenario, the San Jose Sharks skip over the European winger and draft a defenceman in right-hander Chase Reid. Let’s face it, the Sharks have a growing group of talent up front with Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith leading the charge. The addition of Reid will help to solidify a future on the back end for this soon-to-be perennial contender.

Add to that, Reid has an innate ability to get involved offensively while also using his size to add a physical element to his game and it’s going to be pretty hard for the Sharks to pass up an opportunity to lock up a future stud.

At some point, Reid will be eating up big minutes on an NHL blue line while quarterbacking a power play and it might come sooner than people think. It makes sense for the Sharks to take a long look at him at second overall.

Canucks Look at Family Ties With Malhotra at Third Overall

This sequence would put the Vancouver Canucks in a tough spot – choosing between Ivar Stenberg and Caleb Malhotra. But with some familiarity to the name, and the fact that he had an outstanding season in the OHL, Malhotra might force the Canucks arm with the third overall pick.

Let’s face it, it’s hard to ignore an 84-point regular season from a first-year player in the OHL. Add to that his speed, his tenacity and his willingness to play a two-way game and Malhotra is truly a hard one to pass on. He’s a young centre – something the Canucks desperately need and it doesn’t hurt that his father is currently coaching within the organization.

He can play in all situations and drives the play up ice with his speed and elite-level puck handling. While it’ll be hard to pass on Stenberg, Malhotra makes more sense for the lowly Canucks.

Blackhawks Score Stenberg With Fourth Overall

With the first three teams passing on him, the Chicago Blackhawks luck out with Ivar Stenberg with the fourth overall pick. He’s a player that already transitioned his game to play against men at the next level and he did so while still being a tough offensive player to play against.

With 33 points in 43 games with Frölunda HC, Stenberg’s season was nearly a record setting performance at Sweden’s top level of hockey. Still, his impressive numbers have him as definite top-five pick, with many believing that the he could still fight for that number one spot alongside McKenna.

So, if he does fall to fourth, the Blackhawks cannot hesitate in bolstering their core alongside Anton Frondell and Connor Bedard.

Rangers Welcome Carels to Broadway at Fifth Overall

To close out the top-five – and this first scenario – the New York Rangers will also jump on board with picking a defenceman. Let’s be honest, this organization is in shambles. Having traded away a number of assets recently, they need to start somewhere. While a player like Tynan Lawrence might make sense for the Rangers, Carson Carels makes even more sense.

Starting from the net out, the Rangers already have their goaltender in Igor Shesterkin. With K’Andre Miller gone, Carels’ physicality and size adds back in a strong presence on the blue line. Now, add in his offensive production and Carels makes more sense for the Rangers at number five.

Simply put, the Rangers need a number of pieces to become relevant again. Starting with Carels, this might be the start of a new Rangers team in the next couple of seasons.

Now, these picks aren’t based on the best player available, rather what teams might be looking for heading into the 2026 NHL Draft. That said, this is the first of five possible scenarios as we continue to push towards the real thing. With that in mind, the first mock draft is over and we’ll have the second top-five mock draft up next.