It’s been a quiet first two days of free agency for the Denver Broncos. Too quiet, in the estimation of many Broncos fans.
Since the ‘legal tampering’ window opened, the Broncos have yet to sign a single outside free agent. However, the Broncos have re-signed several of their own free agents.
The Broncos said goodbye to key free agents like defensive lineman John Franklin-Myers and safety P.J. Locke, and plan to release veteran linebacker Dre Greenlaw after just one year.
The perception outside the building is that the Broncos have lost more than they’ve gained. Considering how active the Broncos have been in free agency under GM George Paton since 2021, it’s fair for fans to be scratching their heads right now.
With the new league year set to open on Wednesday, what can we really take away from the first two days of free agency? Let’s break it down.
Broncos Won’t Overpay a WR or RB
As Paton has said in the past, he wants to be in on every deal. That doesn’t mean that he’ll win every situation or that the Broncos will come out on top, but the calls are made.
As we saw money being paid out to running backs like Kenneth Walker III ($14 million annually) and Travis Etienne ($13 million), the Broncos backed off. Denver was interested in both, but not to the point of paying top-of-the-market money.
That’s especially true when the Broncos had J.K. Dobbins — a running back they believe can be one of the NFL’s best (when healthy) — ready to re-sign for $8 million annually. Dobbins comes with the downside risk of potentially missing games due to injury, but there was no projection with him; the Broncos already knew he was a fit, both for the scheme and the culture.
It was interesting to see that Tyler Allgeier, who signed with the Arizona Cardinals for $6.5 million annually, wasn’t really on Denver’s radar. He comes with a much lower injury risk and was cheaper than Dobbins.
The Broncos’ caution applied to the receiver market as well. This free-agent class didn’t have a tier-one wideout after George Pickens was franchise-tagged by Dallas, but there were rumors that Denver liked Green Bay’s Romeo Doubs.
The New England Patriots signed Doubs for $17 million per year. The Broncos washed their hands of it because not only was it a lot of money to pay a wideout, but would Doubs really bring something more to the table than the team already has in Troy Franklin, Pat Bryant, and Marvin Mims Jr.?
On one hand, it’s clear that Bo Nix needs some upgrades in the weaponry department, but this free-agent class didn’t present ideal solutions at running back or wide receiver, and the costs for less-than-tier-one players became astronomical.
That’s restraint. But the Broncos can go bargain shopping, at the very least. You’d think…
The Compensatory Formula
The Broncos are in line to potentially receive a fourth-round and seventh-round compensatory pick for the losses of Franklin-Myers and Locke, respectively. Those potential comp picks could be minimized or offset by top-, high-, or mid-tier free-agent signings.
Considering that the Broncos are very much in a win-now window, that shouldn’t be the governing factor in their free-agent decisions, because Nix is only cheap for two more years, and the soonest the team could cash in on those potential comp picks would be 2027.
It seems to have played a part in the Broncos reluctance to go make a free-agent splash. Will it clip their wings entirely and cause them to sit out the first two waves of free agency?
We’re getting pretty close to that happening.
Continuity is King
The Broncos were one Nix injury away from making the Super Bowl. The decision-makers at Dove Valley are obviously confident in their roster, so re-signing their own free agents has taken precedence over splurging on outside additions.
It doesn’t make for a very exciting March for Broncos fans starved of any action surrounding their team, but it’s smart. The Broncos have one of the best rosters in the NFL, with players at all the foundational cornerstone positions: quarterback, left tackle, edge rusher, and cornerback.
There are better tight ends available on the free-agent market, but the Broncos prioritized Adam Trautman and Nate Adkins because, ostensibly, they know the scheme, understand and accept their roles, and have contributed to the locker room culture Sean Payton has worked hard to cultivate.
The same holds true for linebackers Justin Strnad and Alex Singleton. There were some intriguing linebackers on the free-agent market, but continuity was more important to the Broncos’ shot-callers.
After losing more coaches in the hiring cycle this time — specifically, Jim Leonhard on defense and Pete Carmichael on offense — and the firing of offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi, the Broncos have striven to keep the band together as best as possible.
The Broncos couldn’t keep all their free agents, but the made sure to re-sign the ones deemed most important. Now, why Singleton, for example, is more valuable to Payton and Paton than Greenlaw, or why allocating nearly $10 million guaranteed to Trautman instead of bringing back Franklin-Myers is anyone’s guess.
But clearly, they mattered more to what the Broncos are building.
Bottom Line
The Broncos got close to the top of the mountain, but they didn’t quite reach the summit. This team obviously believes it’s much closer to the summit than perhaps some fans and media do, which explains, in part, the free-agent approach thus far.
I can respect it. The Broncos didn’t lose to the Patriots in the AFC championship because they didn’t have Walker, Etienne, or Doubs; they lost because they didn’t have their quarterback.
That’s as true as anything on God’s green Earth, but it makes it all the more curious why the Broncos haven’t been more active in trying to get that quarterback surrounded by more weapons. The NFL draft is still coming in April, and there will be opportunities there, but draft picks take time to develop.
Nix needs help now. I imagine the Broncos aren’t blind to that reality. But they’re obviously going to approach solving this puzzle in their own way and on their own time.
