Heads or Hearts This Year? Voters Will Begin To Tell Us Next Month

Five states with a combined population of nearly 1 in 5 Americans (18 percent of the population) will hold primary elections next month. They will likely provide the first tangible indications of primary voters’ mind-sets in this critical midterm election. When voters in Arkansas, Illinois, Mississippi, North Carolina, and Texas go to the polls to select nominees for the November general election, will they choose pragmatism and electability, or go with principle, consequences be damned? In other words, heads or hearts?

Interestingly, the zeitgeist in each party is somewhat at variance with what happened in the presidential election 15 months ago. With just over 25 percent of his second term behind him, President Trump has embarked on a muscular, in-your-face agenda that one might expect from someone who won by a 15-point margin rather than his actual 1.5-point victory. But for 200,369 combined votes in three states—29,397 votes in Wisconsin (.86 percent), 80,103 in Michigan (1.4 percent), and 120,266 in Pennsylvania (1.7 percent)—it would be Kamala Harris preparing for a State of the Union Address on Feb. 24, not Donald