Updated:
Aug 7, 2026 , 05:02 PM ET
• 4 min read
Colby Marchio’s favorite home run picks for Friday’s MLB slate, featuring Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson.
Photo By – Reuters Connect. Alec Burleson of the St. Louis Cardinals MLB
The weekend starts NOW!
Here are my favorite MLB home run props for today’s slate, headlined by St. Louis Cardinals slugger Alec Burleson and Cleveland Guardians Jo Adell.
Here are my favorite MLB picks for Friday, Aug. 7.
- UPDATE: Added another HR pick + parlay.
Best MLB home run props today
| Player to hit a HR | Odds |
|---|---|
 Jo Adell |
+325 |
 Alec Burleson |
+365 |
 Rafael Devers |
+388 |
| 💲Today’s HR parlay | +9744 |
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Home run pick: Jo Adell (+325)
Chicago White Sox left-hander Noah Schultz has struggled since being brought up, with right-handed hitters giving him the most trouble. The last 60 he has faced own a .339 xBA, .573 xSLG, and .374 xwOBA, while Schultz is allowing a 75% elevation rate to those right-handed hitters.
I like newly acquired Cleveland Guardian Jo Adell in this spot tonight to hit his first home run in a Guardians uniform. He draws the third-highest matchup rating on Batters-Box today, and in 35 elite ratings, he has left the yard 25.7% of the time.
Over his last 30 at-bats against a left-handed pitcher, Adell owns a .893 SLG, 1.326 OPS, and .554 wOBA, while producing a 47% hard hit rate and 23.5% barrel rate.
I would take his home run prop down to +300.
- Time: 6:40 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: CLEGuardians.TV, Chicago Sports Network
Home run pick: Alec Burleson (+365)
Nothing like backing the burley boy on a Friday evening.
St. Louis Cardinals big fella Alec Burleson finds himself in a smash spot against Colorado Rockies right-hander Ryan Feltner. The Rockies starter owns a 10.64 ERA over the last 60 left-handed hitters he has faced.
During that stretch, those lefties are producing a 13.6% barrel rate while owning a .379 xBA, .763 xSLG, and .412 xwOBA.
The Cardinals slugger has maintained a .423 BA, .731 SLG, and 1.231 OPS while producing a 60% hard hit rate and 15% barrel rate over his last 30 plate appearances against right-handed pitching.
This is a strong spot for the big fella to once again go deep this week.
Take this down to +300 at the most.
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: Cardinals.TV, Rockies.TV
Home run pick: Rafael Devers (+388)
One of the first hitters to jump out at me this morning was San Francisco Giants slugger Rafael Devers. The big fella enters Friday with an elite rating on Batters-Box, while covering over 76% of Detroit Tigers right-hander Keider Montero. The arsenal coverage should be a bit higher, but because Devers has such a small sample size against knuckle curves, that is why it sits at 76%.
Regardless, Devers has been seeing the ball extremely well, posting a .320 BA, 10% strikeout rate and .913 OPS while making 89% contact. On the other side, Montero has allowed a 64% elevation rate and 37.7% hard-hit rate to left-handed hitters on the road this season.
Devers owns the hottest bat in the Giants’ lineup right now, and I think he is worth trusting this evening at home. Take this down to +350.
- Time: 10:15 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: NBCSBA, DSN
Colby Marchio’s 2026 Transparency Record
- HR picks: 90-338, +3.7 units
Today’s HR combo
| Rafael Devers |
Trade Now +9744 |
| Jo Adell |
|
| Alec Burleson |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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