The Buffalo Bills fly out west this week for a big-time battle against the Los Angeles Rams. While the Bills might have the better record on the season, the oddsmakers have less confidence in Buffalo than they do Los Angeles. Buffalo is anywhere from a 2.5-to-3-point underdog this week, so if we take into account the three points Vegas usually gives home teams, it’s essentially a pick ‘em.
However, after losing 29-26 to the New England Patriots at home last week, the mood around the Bills has shifted a little. Quarterback Josh Allen looked hesitant to run, and he threw a bad interception to end the game. The Bills’ defense couldn’t stop a nose bleed, let alone an opposing offense, as they allowed New England to secure season-high totals in points (29), first downs (26), total yards (405), passing yards (262), and rushing yards (143).
The Bills are going to need a much more consistent offensive effort combined with a significantly better defensive effort if they want to fly back to the Eastern time zone with a win. One player who obviously needs to step up is Josh Allen, so I’m intentionally leaving him off this week. We know he needs to play well, but here are five of his teammates who need to have a big day in order for the Bills to pull out a big win in the City of Angels.
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There has been a lot of discourse about Kincaid’s blocking ability—or lack thereof—making it difficult for head coach and offensive play-caller Joe Brady to keep Kincaid on the field. That may be true, as Kincaid often serves as an indicator for defense about the play Buffalo is set to run: If it’s a run play, they almost never run directly to Kincaid’s side, and if it’s a pass play, opponents can treat him like a wide receiver rather than as a tight end. Regardless of whether his blocking struggles (he’s definitely improved in that area, although nobody is going to confuse him with teammate Jackson Hawes, let alone Dawson Knox), Kincaid needs to be a big part of the passing game. He can’t see just one target in the first 58 minutes of the game. He can’t make his first reception on the team’s final drive. Kincaid has to be a consistent target, especially if DJ Moore is out or limited by his injured shoulder. Brady has to find ways to use his best playmakers, and Kincaid is inarguably one of his best. Look for the Bills to try to find ways to put the ball in his hands early.
This next statement could really go for the whole interior line, but I’m going to focus on the new guy in the starting lineup. Aaron Donald is likely to play this week. He may have just come out of retirement, but he still has plenty of juice left. Donald is one of the best defensive tackles ever to play the game, so the Bills need to have a plan to limit him. Anderson’s play has been spotty this season. I’ve found him to be good in double-team situations where he can help, but he’s left a lot to be desired as an anchor or in one-on-one blocks. Buffalo’s offensive line has regressed this season, and while Anderson isn’t the only issue (his counterpart on the left side has had a poor year in pass protection, as well), he’s one of them. Monday night would be a good time for him to have an “invisible” performance. If we aren’t talking about the offensive line, then we know they did their jobs. Let’s hope we don’t have to say much about No. 70 this week.
On defense, the key to Buffalo’s game plan has to be pressuring quarterback Matthew Stafford. If Buffalo can influence the veteran by speeding him up and putting him on the ground, it’s going to help their struggling secondary about as much as any shift in scheme could help. Whereas Drake Maye beat the Bills with his legs last week, buying time in the pocket to make strong off-platform throws and scrambling for 54 yards on eight rushes, Stafford is more stationary at age 38. He can still slide and avoid in the pocket, but he’s not going to take off and scramble much. Rousseau has six sacks already this season, as he’s taken a huge leap forward in new defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard’s scheme. He needs to impact the game, and he can do it in multiple ways: strip sacks, QB knockdowns, pass bat-downs, and other plays that disrupt the timing and flow of the Los Angeles offense will lead to good things for the Bills.
Buffalo’s “green-dot” on defense is a polarizing player at this point. Fans and media members see a player who isn’t playing as well as he has in the past, but coaches continue to praise his play and talk about how well he’s doing his job on the field. Bernard has 29 tackles, second on the team. He has one pass deflection, one tackle for loss, and one fumble recovery. According to Pro Football Reference, he’s also missed five tackles and allowed 11 completions for 112 yards on 16 total targets. I’m far from an expert, but I see a player who has lost a step. I also see a player who is trying to process a new defense, which could be contributing to the slower-than-expected reactions to plays I think he would have made two years ago. It’s also possible that injuries have sapped Bernard of his best trait as a player: quickness. Whatever the case, a game where he reacts quickly and decisively to what’s in front of him would be nice, especially against a talented, efficient Rams squad. The Bills need him to be better, regardless of what the coaching staff says publicly.
Where is he going to line up this week? With the team down its top three slot corners—Dee Alford has an ankle injury, Jordan Hancock is on injured reserve with a hamstring injury, and Te’Cory Couch hurt his hamstring in his debut from the practice squad—defensive coordinator Jim Leonhard had to be creative last week. He had Damar Hamlin in the slot, which didn’t work, and he also had Bishop move inside in some nickel situations. Bishop was beaten badly by Hunter Henry on the last meaningful play from scrimmage of the game, as he sold out on the run fake with New England facing a third-and-ten. Bishop has the athleticism to move around the back of the defensive formation, but he hasn’t yet shown the awareness to do more than one task at once. Depending on what Leonhard wants to do, or has to do thanks to injuries, we might see Bishop in some different places this week. It would be a good time for him to make a play on the ball, as well, though he might end up in the slot matching up against someone like Puka Nacua. Bishop has 25 tackles this season without a pass breakup to his line. Dee Alford is listed as questionable thanks to his ankle injury, so we’ll see if he’s ready to go tomorrow night. Whether he is or not, Bishop making a play would certainly help Buffalo’s chances on Monday.
