The college basketball season has arrived, with teams set to tip-off across the country. Throughout the preseason, many computer models have given their projection for where each team will finish, offering a base for bracketology projections ahead.
The NCAA Tournament field is officially moving from 68 teams to 76 this season, leaving more room for bubble teams to enter the mix after expansion. Conference realignment has also changed the picture, with the Pac-12’s return taking the list of automatic bids from 31 back to 32.
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The NCAA uses the NET Rankings – an analytic algorithm that ranks every team in college basketball by splitting wins and losses into four categories (known as quadrants) – to help the selection committee build the new 76-team bracket in March. Bracketology aims to predict how the selection committee will seed each team based on the results to this point in the season while accounting for other factors that impact the final bracket.
With new additions to every roster across college basketball this offseason, there are plenty changes to the outlook for March Madness. Using that information, here is a preseason look at the 2027 Bracketology field from On3.
Bracketology
Projected 1-line: Florida, Duke, UConn, Illinois
Last four byes: West Virginia, Clemson, Missouri, Indiana
Last four in: NC State, Utah State, SMU, Ole Miss
First four out: Marquette, Virginia Tech, Arizona State, Oklahoma State
‘First Four’ (Dayton/Wichita)
15 Montana State (Big Sky) vs. 15 Austin Peay (UAC)
15 ETSU (SoCon) vs. 15 Merrimack (Metro)
16 American (Patriot) vs. 16 Bethune Cookman (SWAC)
16 Tennessee State (OVC) vs. 16 Arkansas State (SBC)
16 Queens (ASUN) vs. 16 Long Island (NEC)
16 Vermont (AEC) vs. 16 Howard (MEAC)
10 Auburn vs. 10 St. Louis
11 LSU vs. 11 Utah State
11 TCU vs. 11 Providence
11 Oklahoma vs. 11 Cincinnati
11 Baylor vs. 11 SMU
12 NC State vs. 12 Ole Miss
East (New York)
Charlotte
1 Florida (SEC) vs. 16 American/Bethune Cookman
8 Wisconsin vs. 9 West Virginia
Spokane
5 St. John’s vs. 12 New Mexico (MWC)
4 Tennessee vs. 13 Belmont (MVC)
Omaha
6 Miami vs. 11 LSU/Utah State
3 Iowa State vs. 14 Harvard (Ivy)
Louisville
7 North Carolina vs. 10 Missouri
2 Michigan State vs. 15 St. Thomas (Summit)
1-seed Florida
Florida returns four starters from last season’s roster which went into the NCAA Tournament as a 1-seed, and still holds three starters from the 2025 national championship run. No team in college basketball can match that level of retention, as Todd Golden spent the offseason filling out the rotation.
2-seed Arizona
Arizona brings back two key pieces from its roster last season, hoping they can take a leap into the spotlight while surrounded with a new cast of role players with big upside. After retaining Tommy Lloyd, they got pieces in place for another run at the biggest prize in college basketball.
West (Los Angeles)
Louisville
1 Illinois (Big Ten) vs. 16 Tennessee State/Arkansas State
8 Georgia vs. 9 Clemson
Minneapolis
5 Kansas vs. 12 St. Mary’s (WCC)
4 Louisville vs. 13 Miami (OH) (MAC)
Omaha
6 Nebraska vs. 11 TCU/Providence
3 Arkansas vs. 14 Liberty (CUSA)
Sacramento
7 Kentucky vs. 10 Indiana
2 Arizona vs. 15 Montana State/Austin Peay
1-seed Michigan State
Michigan State brings back plenty production from last season, adding to the mix with a combination of highly-touted recruits and a transfer addition to the frontcourt. Tom Izzo has a roster with a clear picture of what it must do, with many roles already established heading into the season.
2-seed Houston
Houston comes back with another combination of transfer additions and freshman talent ready to take on big roles around an established group of role players who have developed in the system. Kelvin Sampson has consistently put his team in position to compete at the top of college basketball.
Midwest (Kansas City)
Charlotte
1 Duke (ACC) vs. 16 Queens/Long Island
8 Iowa vs. 9 Texas A&M
Sacramento
5 Purdue vs. 12 NC State/Ole Miss
4 Texas Tech vs. 13 McNeese State (Southland)
Spokane
6 UCLA vs. 11 Oklahoma/Cincinnati
3 Gonzaga (Pac-12) vs. 14 Utah Valley (Big West)
Fort Worth
7 Villanova vs. 10 VCU (A10)
2 Texas vs. 15 Wright State (Horizon)
1-seed Duke
Duke has one of the deepest teams in college basketball entering the season, with big potential to separate itself from the field. Jon Scheyer retains solid pieces, then hit the recruiting trail and transfer portal for even more talent to sort through as players battle for minutes and develop into stars.
2-seed Texas
Texas has level up its talent this offseason, building around the strengths of last season’s roster with a highly-ranked transfer portal class and a group of freshman talent. The new-look group has the capability to lift the ceiling for Sean Miller this season’s March Madness run.
South (San Antonio)
Pittsburgh
1 UConn (Big East) vs. 16 Vermont/Howard
8 BYU vs. 9 USC
Minneapolis
5 Michigan vs. 12 Wichita State (American)
4 Alabama vs. 13 High Point (Big South)
Pittsburgh
6 Vanderbilt vs. 11 Baylor/SMU
3 Virginia vs. 14 UNC Wilmington (CAA)
Fort Worth
7 Ohio State vs. 10 Auburn/St. Louis
2 Houston vs. 15 ETSU/Merrimack
1-seed UConn
UConn was able to bring back key pieces from the backcourt, setting up another strong season with transfers and freshmen ready to fill the gaps in the frontcourt and bench roles. Dan Hurley looks to get his team back to the top after back-to-back championships just a few seasons ago.
2-seed Illinois
Illinois tapped every form of roster-building this offseason, bringing back many versatile players from last season along with a batch of transfer additions and freshman talent capable of replacing or covering that lost. For Brad Underwood, it is another strong offseason as he looks to break through in the postseason.
