Week 9’s action across the NFL brought with it plenty of excitement.
Not only did Myles Garrett return from injury and notch three sacks in the Rams’ win over the Commanders, but the Saints beat the Browns, 23–22, thanks to a failed two-point conversion attempt by Cleveland, and the Cowboys held off the Colts 27–23 to get to 4–5 on the year.
Elsewhere, Jordan Love’s dominant performance led the Packers to a 45–27 win over the Patriots, while the Chargers lost again—this time to the Texans, 44–22.
With that, here’s a look at the current NFL playoff picture.
Note: All postseason probabilities are courtesy of The Athletic’s playoff simulator.
AFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: Buffalo Bills
Record: 6–1 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 97%
The Bills remain in control of the AFC’s No. 1 seed after Sunday’s action, and will take on the Vikings on Monday night to close out Week 9. Their matchup will feature a battle of best on best, as Buffalo’s offense is scoring a league-high 33.3 points per game, while Minnesota is allowing a league-low 13.3 points per game.
No. 2: Denver Broncos
Record: 7–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 91%
Even after being outgained for the fourth time in five weeks, the Broncos extended their winning streak to five with a 26–21 win over the Panthers. The victory keeps Denver in the driver’s seat in the AFC West for another week. With both of their matchups against the Chiefs already behind them, the Broncos sit in a favorable position to capture their second consecutive division title.
No. 3: Jacksonville Jaguars
Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 98%
The Jaguars continued to look like one of the best teams after their 33–10 win over the Ravens on Thursday Night Football. The 33–10 victory saw Trevor Lawrence notch a 100-plus passer rating for the sixth time this season, while the defense continued to dominate, forcing Baltimore’s offense into three turnovers. Jacksonville now has a favorable schedule ahead, as they’ll take on the 1–7 Titans in two of the next three weeks.
No. 4: Pittsburgh Steelers
Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 3 | Playoff probability: 79%
Pittsburgh holds the tiebreaker over the Bengals based on its win percentage in conference games, and remains in first place in the AFC North despite spending Week 9 on a bye. Pittsburgh will take on the Bengals next Sunday night in Cincinnati in a prime-time matchup before a stretch run that includes games against the Broncos, Texans and Jaguars.
No. 5: Kansas City Chiefs
Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 90%
After dropping two consecutive games to the Seahawks and Broncos in Weeks 7 and 8, the Chiefs got their mojo back in Week 9 with a 35–12 throttling of the Jets. Kansas City is now 6–2 thanks to another commanding rushing performance from running back Kenneth Walker III and remains both in the thick of the wild-card race and within striking distance of an AFC West title.
No. 6: Cincinnati Bengals
Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 93%
The Bengals took care of business early Sunday morning, taking down the Falcons 34–17 behind another MVP-level performance from quarterback Joe Burrow. The 29-year-old completed 83% of his passes for 271 yards and three touchdowns while posting a passer rating of 140.1. Cincinnati has now won four consecutive games after its 2–2 start and has positioned itself as a true AFC contender as the trade deadline approaches.
No. 7: New England Patriots
Record: 5–4 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 72%
The Patriots lost to the Packers in embarrassing fashion, 45–27. Now 5–4 and barely holding onto the final spot in the AFC, New England will head to Germany next weekend to take on the Lions in Munich before a much-needed Week 11 bye.
AFC: IN THE HUNT
8. Cleveland Browns (5–4)
9. Las Vegas Raiders (4–5)
10. Baltimore Ravens (4–5)
NFC: WHO’S IN
No. 1: San Francisco 49ers
Record: 7–1 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 96%
The 49ers bounced back after their Week 7 loss to the Falcons, followed by a bye last weekend, to beat the Raiders 38–17. San Francisco will travel to Dallas to take on the Cowboys before a Week 11 matchup against the 6–1 Vikings that will carry significant implications atop the NFC standings.
No. 2: Minnesota Vikings
Record: 6–1 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 78%
The Vikings remain in the NFC’s No. 2 spot as they prepare to close out Week 9 with a matchup against the Bills on Monday Night Football. Despite an elite defense, Minnesota has struggled on offense for much of the season—scoring 20-plus points just twice—and with Carson Wentz set to start in place of the injured Kyler Murray, they could very well look to the trade market for a quarterback as Tuesday’s deadline approaches.
No. 3: New York Giants
Record: 5-2-1 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 68%
The Giants have won two consecutive games since handing the offensive reins to quarterback J.J. McCarthy, most recently with a 19–9 victory over the Eagles. New York remains in complete control of the NFC East, with the Cowboys the next closest team in the division at 4–5, and has two winnable games against the Commanders and Colts over the next three weeks.
No. 4: Carolina Panthers
Record: 3–5 | Opponents left above .500: 4 | Playoff probability: 25%
The Panthers will remain atop the NFC South through Week 9 despite losing to the Broncos, and they have the Buccaneers to thank for it. Tampa Bay held the division lead for less than 12 hours before its 27–24 loss to the Bears to close out Sunday’s slate put Carolina back in first place. That said, the Panthers’ 3–5 record will undoubtedly need to improve if they hope to return to the postseason for a second consecutive year.
No. 5: Chicago Bears
Record: 7–2 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 88%
The Bears took over the No. 5 spot in the NFC playoff picture with their narrow 27–24 victory over the Buccaneers on Sunday night. Despite Caleb Williams throwing a career-high four interceptions, Chicago was able to find its way to a win—its fourth in a row—and now sits at 7–2 and in the NFC’s top wild-card spot heading into Week 10.
No. 6: Detroit Lions
Record: 6–2 | Opponents left above .500: 6 | Playoff probability: 79%
Jake Bates’s four field goals propelled Detroit to a 19–9 win over the Dolphins in Miami. Now 6–2 and winners of their past three games, the Lions will head to Germany next Sunday to take on the Patriots in Munich.
No. 7: Green Bay Packers
Record: 6–3 | Opponents left above .500: 5 | Playoff probability: 59%
The Packers made it known that they’re for real, beating the Patriots 45–27 behind a dominant performance from Jordan Love. The quarterback’s 372-yard, three-touchdown showing helped Green Bay notch its fifth win in its past six weeks. They’ll now head back home to Lambeau next Sunday for an all-important NFC North matchup with the Vikings.
NFC: IN THE HUNT
8. Seattle Seahawks (4–4)
9. Los Angeles Rams (5–4)
10. Dallas Cowboys (4–5)
