July 1 has come and gone and we’re officially into a new year of the NHL calendar, which means it’s pencils down on the 2023-24 prediction contest. Let’s see how you did.
First, the background for any newcomers out there. This was Year 4 of the contest, in which you answer 10 seemingly simple questions about the upcoming season with as much or as little confidence as you can muster. More answers means more points, but even one wrong answer means a zero for the question, so in theory, there’s a balance to be found.
This year’s contest had a little over 2,000 entries. You can find the original contest post here. We went through those initial entries to figure out what they told us about the coming season, and we had a midseason check-in to see how you were doing.
As always, while the idea here is to get the highest possible score and win, the real fun is in looking back at the entries and seeing how smart (or dumb) the wisdom of the crowd really was. With that in mind, let’s look at each of the questions and just how “simple” they turned out to be.
Question 1: Name up to five teams that will make the playoffs.
This one ended up being easy points, assuming you could avoid the one tripwire that emerged. That had looked dicey earlier in the year, thanks to the Oilers’ slow start; they were the second-most mentioned team, with 1,702 entries, meaning they were set to take out nearly everyone after a 2-9-1 start. But they recovered, meaning all of the top five answers ended up being correct, with Carolina (1,825 entries), Toronto (1,535), Colorado (1,465) and Dallas (1,213) all being safe picks.
The trouble came with the sixth-most common answer, as the Devils took out 941 of you. Without getting ahead of ourselves, this wouldn’t be the first time New Jersey’s disappointing season would do some damage.
The next six most common answers all made the playoffs, meaning the Devils were the only team in the top 12 and the only team with more than 15 mentions to miss out. Maybe the most interesting insight here is that the eventual champion Panthers were only mentioned 25 times, ranking behind teams like the Kings and Lightning. Barely anyone had faith in eventual playoff teams like Vancouver (three entries), Winnipeg (two) or the Islanders (just one). And nobody listed the Capitals at all, meaning they technically finished behind the NFL’s Carolina Panthers, who got one mention from a presumably confused fan.
Question 2: Name up to five teams that will not make the playoffs.
More easy money here, with each of the eight most common responses all proving correct. Nobody believed in the Sharks (1,907 entries), Ducks (1,633), Canadiens (1,625) or Blackhawks (1,315), and you were right. Things got a little more nervous for the 1,485 of you who picked the Flyers, but their late collapse made them another right answer.
The most common wrong answers here were the Capitals (75 entries), Canucks (52) and Predators (21). The Panthers were picked three times, while the Rangers, Wild, Kraken and Penguins all showed up exactly once.
So two questions in, you guys have shown that you’re pretty good at figuring out where teams will land. Well, about that …
Question 3: Name up to five teams that will finish in the middle 16 of the regular-season standings.
This was a new question this year, meant to test how well hockey fans can predict the mushy middle (i.e. between ninth and 23rd).
The answer: Not very well.
The answers here were all over the map, without any teams hitting the 1,000 mark. The Islanders were the most common answer, at 939 entries, and they turned out to be correct. But the next team was the Senators, and they missed the mark and took out 906 entries. Other wrong answers included the Flames, who were listed 698 times and fell short, as well as the Jets (687), Canucks (554), Panthers (191) and Bruins (123), who all exceeded expectations.
Yes, the Panthers again. You may be picking up on a theme here: Nobody really seemed to go into this season viewing Florida as a legitimate contender. Only 25 of you had the Panthers as a playoff lock, while 191 had them in the middle. And it’s not like things had turned around all that much by the playoffs when you still weren’t feeling them as true favorites. These days it feels like the 2023-24 Panthers were some sort of inevitable powerhouse all along, but our contests remind us that that isn’t how fans viewed them.
Finally, I’m stunned that only 693 of you took the Wild on a middle-of-the-pack question that was basically designed for them. They were, of course, a correct answer.
Only 25 entrants picked the eventual Stanley Cup champion Panthers as a playoff lock. (Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Question 4: Name up to five coaches who will not be fired or otherwise leave their job before July 1, 2024.
The coach question has traditionally been a tricky one, especially since, as always, you weren’t allowed to name any coach who has held their current job for less than one year. This season was a little easier than most, with your top seven “safe” coaches all making it through the year unscathed. That list was led by never-in-doubt picks like Jared Bednar (1,153 entries), Jon Cooper (1,084) and Bruce Cassidy (985), while Rod Brind’Amour at least made 1,132 of you sweat a bit while he negotiated his new deal.
The biggest blow here came, once again, from the Devils; Lindy Ruff’s midseason firing took out 466 of you. Other common misses included Don Granato (294 entries), Dave Hakstol (225) and Todd McLellan (189). And for reasons I’m not entirely clear on, 154 of you thought Sheldon Keefe was completely safe in Toronto. The only reasonable conclusion from that fact is this site needs more Maple Leafs coverage.
Among coaches who didn’t make it through the season, you were the least surprised by Craig Berube (only 14 entries), D.J. Smith (16), Lane Lambert (19) and Rick Bowness (22).
Question 5: Name up to five GMs who will not be fired or otherwise leave their job before July 1, 2024.
Despite being limited to GMs who’d been on the job for at least two years, this one ended up being the closest thing to free money in the contest’s history, with each of the 14 most common answers all proving to be correct.
We don’t lose anyone until we get all the way down to Ken Holland, who was listed 170 times. (Holland wasn’t fired, but he wasn’t the Oilers’ GM at the end of the day on July 1, so he counts.) The only two GMs to be fired during the season were Pierre Dorion and Jarmo Kekäläinen, and just about all of you saw that coming, with the two beleaguered GMs listed by only 26 and 11 of you, respectively.
And in case you’re wondering, Brian MacLellan made it to July 8, so he’s safe as far as our contest is concerned. That was good news for the 49 of you who chose him.
Onto the player questions …
Question 6: Name up to five goaltenders who will start at least 50 games this season.
You’re hedging against both injury and performance here, and in the past, this question has tended to see a strong consensus emerge that either makes for easy points or takes almost everyone out. This year was no exception, as you all clumped around Igor Shesterkin (1,561 responses), Ilya Sorokin (1,535), Juuse Saros (1,489), Connor Hellebuyck (1,450) and Jake Oettinger (1,446) before a huge drop-off all the way down to Alexandar Georgiev at 379.
All of those ended up being correct, with Oettinger coming the closest to disaster with 53 starts. Sorokin actually did lose his starting job, but not until the playoffs arrived, so his 55 starts were also enough. The most damaging miss here was Jacob Markstrom, who took out 129 of you by falling two starts short.
An interesting note: The two Stanley Cup finalists, Sergei Bobrovsky and Stuart Skinner, only had the support of 25 and 15 of you, respectively, making them the second- and third-least common correct answers. On that note, let’s offer a special shoutout to Paul D., whose entry was the only one to correctly list Petr Mrazek for this question.
Question 7: Name up to five rookies who will finish in the top 10 of Calder balloting.
This question always ends up being tougher than it looks, and this year was no exception. While Connor Bedard was a nearly unanimous pick that worked out for 1,967 of you and Logan Cooley (1,611) and Luke Hughes (1,024) were solid picks, it all fell apart after that.
The big one here was Adam Fantilli, who finished 13th in voting and took out 1,248 of you. He at least got a few Calder votes, which is more than we can say for Devon Levi (598 entries) or Matthew Knies (558). Those were the big six names — Leo Carlsson was next with just 65 entrants — meaning you only batted 50 percent on the rookie favorites this year.
The good news is a few of you did find some unexpected gems, with 27 of you correctly listing Luke Evangelista, 26 having Marco Rossi, 16 having Brock Faber and just six of you nailing Tyson Foerster.
But overall, yikes. How bad was it? Of the 625 of you who went for the big swing and listed five names here, only one got points. That was Drew J., who listed Bedard, Cooley, Hughes, Rossi and Evangelista to become the only one of this year’s entrants to go for 5-for-5 and bank maximum points on the rookies.
Question 8: Name up to five defensemen who will finish in the top 10 of Norris balloting.
Cale Makar was another near-unanimous choice here, appearing on 1,945 entries. Adam Fox (1,850) and Miro Heiskanen (1,312) rounded out a top three that made the grade, although Heiskanen just barely cleared the bar by finishing exactly 10th.
From there, things got tougher. The next two most common names were Rasmus Dahlin (1,067) and Charlie McAvoy (628), who both ended up giving you zeroes. So did Dougie Hamilton (199) and Erik Karlsson (167), making for a tough field that saw almost 1,000 of you list five names but only 38 of you go 5-for-5.
By the way, while both Noah Dobson and Gustav Forsling would have been right answers, neither was listed on a single entry by any of you. That means they had less support than single-entry names like Jake Walman, Mike Reilly and Darnell Nurse.
Question 9: Name up to five players who will finish in the top 15 of Hart Trophy voting.
With only 14 players appearing on ballots this year, this question basically ended up being “Name someone who’ll get a Hart vote.” And that wasn’t easy.
Congratulations to Connor McDavid, who unsurprisingly was this year’s most common answer for any question, coming in at 1,979 entries. He of course counted as a correct answer here, as did Nathan MacKinnon (1,375) and Auston Matthews (1,143).
From there, yikes. Seven of the next eight most common answers all gave you a zero, including Jack Hughes (1,051 entries) and Leon Draisaitl (1,042), along with Matthew Tkachuk, Jason Roberton, Cale Makar, Kirill Kaprizov and Elias Pettersson.
Then there were the players who did appear on Hart ballots but not on any of your entries: Roman Josi, Sam Reinhart and J.T. Miller, who are all mildly surprising omissions, as well as Charlie Lindgren, who is not.
Add it all up, and only three of you went 5-for-5 on the Hart question, and even among the more cautious, only 12 even hit 4-for-4. In all, only 83 entrants got any points at all on this question, a contest-wide success rate of under 5 percent.
![](https://cdn.theathletic.com/app/uploads/2024/07/07193454/USATSI_23595881-scaled.jpg)
Connor McDavid was unsurprisingly the most common answer among possible Hart Trophy candidates. (Sergei Belski / USA Today)
Question 10: Name up to five players who are currently on an NHL roster who will change teams between puck drop on opening night and the end of the first day of 2024 free agency.
Ah, the dreaded “changing teams” question. We’re looking for anyone who winds up on a new team via trade, free agency, waivers or whatever else, but not retirement, leaving the league entirely, or being an unsigned free agent. Basically, you had to be property of at least two teams between opening night and the end of the day on July 1.
As always, responses were all over the map here, with nobody appearing on a majority of entries. The five most common responses all counted as correct: Matt Dumba led the way with 767 entries, ahead of Anthony Duclair (564), Jason Zucker (518), Adam Henrique (409) and Noah Hanifin (261). But it was bad news for you early birds who jumped the gun on the Jets’ duo of Connor Hellebuyck and Mark Scheifele, who took out 235 and 197 entries, respectively. Other wrong answers included Mike Hoffman (142), Marc Staal (135) and Tyler Johnson (126). All in all, just 29 of you pulled off the 5-for-5 here.
I’m always vaguely fascinated by some of the names at the bottom of this list every year, so kudos to the single entries who went out on a limb to correctly predict moves for big names like Jaycob Megna, A.J, Greer, Radim Simek and Sam Carrick. And a special glove tap to Andrew M., the only entrant who was confident the Oilers would part ways with Jack Campbell.
That’s it for the 10 regular questions. But as you veteran contest-watchers know, we’re not quite done yet …
Optional bonus question: For 15 points, name one and only one player who will finish this season with at least 100 points, and who is not an Edmonton Oiler.
Yes, it’s the bonus question, the all-or-nothing option that gives you a chance to risk your entire entry for some additional points. Over the years, more and more of you are opting in on this one, which is probably the right call — it’s not a great gamble from an expected value perspective, but it would be awfully tough to win without it. This year, 1,550 of you chose to risk it all, just about three-in-four.
Of those who decided to roll the dice, the most common answer was Nathan MacKinnon with 552 responses, which presumably made for a stress-free experience when he hit the 100-point mark at the end of February. You were also laughing if you were one of the 90 who picked Nikita Kucherov, who crossed the mark a few days before MacKinnon got there. You had to wait a little longer if you were one of the 96 entries to pick Auston Matthews, the 50 to take David Pastrnak, or the 26 to go with Mikko Rantanen, but you got there by the end.
On the other hand, the second-most common pick was Jack Hughes, meaning his injury spelled disaster for 321 of you. Thanks, New Jersey. Another 122 went down with Jason Robertson, while 95 of you took zeroes from Matthew Tkachuk and 82 from Mitch Marner. Other players who took out a total in the double digits by staying in the double digits include Elias Pettersson (36), Kirill Kaprizov (32) and Tim Stützle (20).
Among the other players to hit 100 points, the one mentioned was Artemi Panarin, who appeared on two entries, That tied him with fellow winger Patrik Laine, who fell just 91 points short. Not one of you correctly picked J.T. Miller, although there were single entries that gambled and lost of Roope Hintz, Jordan Kyrou and Jonathan Huberdeau.
And the winners are …
Too many of you.
Yeah, that’s the bad news for this year’s contest. We ended up with an eight-way tie for first place. In related news, remind me to come up with a cool tiebreaker next year. But in the meantime, congratulations to Duncan R., Jim B., Gregg K., Dean G., Nico C., Donovan B., Adam V. and Josh V. All the winners followed essentially the same plan, going all out on every question and successfully banking points on six of 10, then hitting the bonus question to finish with 105 points.
That left a few of them with some excruciating near-misses. For example, Duncan would have won if Darcy Kuemper had held on to his starter’s job, while Nico would have taken the crown if Adam Fantilli had shown up in the Calder race. Jim could have won with better seasons from either Devon Levi or Rasmus Dahlin, but neither came through. And maybe the most agonizing finish goes to Donovan, whose hopes for a solo win were alive right up until the end of the day on July 1, needing Tyler Johnson to find a new team before midnight. The call never came, leaving Donovan just short of having the podium all to himself.
Among the non-winners, two stand out. The first is Tim R., who nailed the maximum 15 points on six of the 10 questions, then wisely played it safe on Question 10 to bank six more points. That gave him 96 points, the most of anyone in the contest through the 10 main questions. But he chickened out on the bonus, passing up on a shot at the 15 points that would have made him this year’s winner. Nice job, Tim, you coward.
But this year’s “so close” award goes to Tom K. He nailed the playoff, non-playoff, coach, GM and goalie questions, banking max points. Then he settled for partial scores on the defenseman and the new team questions, while also hitting on MacKinnon for his bonus. That left him at 101 points, meaning he would have won if he’d managed just one more right answer on either of those partial questions. But it gets even worse, because Tom also went four-of-five on the middle-16 question. His one miss? The Flames, who finished tied for 23rd with the Devils but lost the regulation-wins tiebreaker by one, dropping them to 24th. One more point for the Flames, or one less for the Devils, and Tom is a 116-point runaway winner. Instead, he’s one of our 2,000 or so losers.
Full results, including the ability to search for your own entry, can be found here. A big thanks as always to Mike Morton for setting up the back end; we couldn’t run the contest without him.
And finally, thanks to everyone for participating. I’m happy to hear any suggestions for tiebreakers, new questions or any other improvements for next year’s contest, which will return in October. In the meantime, you’ve got all summer to think about your strategy for next time.
(Photo of Jack Hughes celebrating a goal with the New Jersey Devils: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)