COOPERSTOWN, N.Y. − There are less than 10 shopping days remaining before the trade deadline with no one having any idea what’s actually available to buy.
Are All-Star first baseman Pete Alonso and the New York Mets’ veteran starters available, or are they staying put?
Are the Rangers playing Texas Hold ‘Em or can you really bid on starters with glossy playoff résumés like Max Scherzer and Nathan Eovaldi?
Will the Chicago Cubs be begging for offers for center fielder/first baseman Cody Bellinger or telling their loyal fanbase they’re all in?
Never has there been seen so much uncertainty this close to the trade deadline, several executives say, with teams literally waiting until the final few hours before the July 30 deadline whether they plan to be buyers or sellers.
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“With just very few exceptions right now, almost everybody is in a hold,” Jerry Dipoto, Mariners president of baseball operations, said on Seattle radio Wednesday. “Because what you see when you pick up the paper and look at the standings, or flip on a site and check out where teams stand, almost everybody in baseball is within three games of a playoff spot it seems. …
“There are a lot of teams that have a chance at the halfway mark, and that’s going to make the trade deadline a little more complicated than it usually is.”
Indeed, there are only five teams who are really out of playoff contention right now: the Chicago White Sox, Colorado Rockies, Miami Marlins, Oakland Athletics and Los Angeles Angels.
So how can you really buy when there’s no inventory?
“I think we’re going to see teams just stand pat and go with what they have,” one National League executive said. “The asking price is so high, you may be better off just staying pat and taking your chances.”
There is no Justin Verlander-type pitcher on the market unless the Detroit Tigers are out of their minds and trade Cy Young contender Tarik Skubal. There is no Juan Soto-type impact hitter on the market unless the Toronto Blue Jays have a change of heart and trade Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
There still may be plenty of trades in the next week, but precious little sizzle.
The best pitcher expected to be dealt will be White Sox ace Garrett Crochet.
And the most concerns surrounding a player will be Garrett Crochet.
So many questions, so few concrete answers, with every game until July 30 determining teams’ strategy on how they’ll handle the deadline.
The trade deadline highlights the early top storylines of the second half.
Who will be the most aggressive teams at the deadline?
The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, Seattle Mariners and San Diego Padres.
The Dodgers, after spending $1.3 billion in free agency this winter, know that anything less than a World Series championship will be an absolute failure.
The Yankees, after trading away a good chunk of their future for slugger Juan Soto, and getting another MVP season out of Aaron Judge, need to play at least late into October or will consider the season a waste of time.
The Mariners, a team that scares everyone with that starting rotation, can’t go into August without acquiring at least one premium bat, whether it’s Jazz Chisholm, Luis Robert Jr., Isaac Paredes or Alonso. This is a team that has struck out more times than anyone in baseball (1,013 at the All-Star break), ranking last with a .219 batting average and 28th in runs scored (3.87), slugging percentage (.367) and OPS (.667).
Padres GM A.J. Preller, who gambled and lost when they acquired Soto, now must make the postseason or he could be looking for a new job with the ownership no longer protecting him after Peter Seidler’s passing.
What will the Blue Jays do at the deadline?
The Toronto Blue Jays, baseball’s most underachieving team, will do plenty of selling at the deadline before they do some firing in the offseason.
They are expected to trade pitcher Yusei Kikuchi, center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, catcher Danny Jansen and DH Justin Turner – and could entertain offers for Chris Bassitt and Kevin Gausman.
But are they willing to go all of the way and trade Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette too?
Highly unlikely.
They still want to keep the team together one more year, but if they’re still underperforming a year from now, they’ll be dumped at next year’s trade deadline.
Are the Astros all in?
The Houston Astros were buried, losing 24 of their first 36 games, 12-24 in early May, 10 games out of first place on June 18 – but look who’s now tied for first place.
They went 17-6 head into the All-Star break while the Mariners went 8-15.
The Astros, with their starting rotation hammered by injuries all season long, ranking just 17th in ERA, still badly need reinforcements.
Astros GM Dana Brown vows they will be aggressive, yet with a weak farm system, and up against the luxury tax, can they really afford anyone besides a cheap rental?
Can Aaron Judge break his AL home run record?
Judge, with 34 homers and 85 RBI, is only the fourth player in major league history to produce those numbers before the All-Star break, joining Mark McGwire (37 homers, 87 RBI), Luis Gonzalez (35, 86) and Chris Davis (37, 93).
Two years ago, Judge set the AL home-run record with 62 long balls.
He could break it this season.
This is a guy who was hitting .197 with six homers and a .725 OPS on May 2, but in the next 63 games hit .367 with 28 homers and a 1.324 OPS.
So, yes, anything is possible.
Can the Red Sox make the postseason?
The Boston Red Sox have massively exceeded expectations with a 31-18 record since May 19, and are sitting in the final wild-card spot.
Take a bow manager Alex Cora, who will be the hottest free agent of the winter.
Who could have imagined that Tanner Houck would be a Cy Young candidate, Ceddanne Rafaela would be a Rookie of the Year candidate and Jarren Duran would be the All-Star MVP.
“Everybody in that clubhouse,” Cora told reporters, “believes we can pull this off.”
Forget the white flag that was supposed to come at the trade deadline.
The Red Sox, who are 28-12 against sub-.500 teams, are going for the flag they can hang at Fenway Park.
“We can win the division,” Cora says.
They’ll certainly be tested immediately out of the gate the second half with seven of their first 10 games against the Dodgers, Yankees and Mariners, and 22 of their first 31 games against teams with a winning record.
Will the White Sox end up with the worst record in baseball?
The Chicago White Sox had their worst record (27-71) in franchise history after 98 games, losing more games than any team at the All-Star break. But the question historians want to know is whether they will topple the 1962 Mets (40-120-1) for the worst record in baseball history.
The White Sox are on pace to lose 117 games, but when you consider they plan to gut their roster at the trade deadline, shopping anyone and everyone, they’re certainly giving themselves every opportunity for infamous history.
Their Magic Number is 16 victories to avoid history.
Can the Guardians keep winning?
It’s hard to believe the Cleveland Guardians, the youngest team in baseball, have the AL’s second best record (59-38) despite a rotation that ranks only 13th in the league with a 4.52 ERA.
Who could have imagined they would make up for their pitching deficiencies with the fifth-best offense in the league with Steven Kwan hitting a major-league leading .351, Jose Ramirez second in the AL in RBI, Josh Naylor third and DH David Fry making the All-Star team?
The same team that was last in homers last season now rank seventh.
Cleveland’s biggest challenge may be fortifying its bullpen, which easily has the lowest ERA (2.62 ERA) in the league, with the Yankees being the second-best (3.46), but has pitched the fourth-most innings in the league. Hunter Gaddis, Scott Barlow and closer Emmanuel Clase all rank in the top five in appearances.
Will this be the first year a DH wins the MVP award?
In other words – does Shohei Ohtani win the NL MVP?
He’s hitting .315 with 29 homers and 23 stolen bases, leading the league in homers, runs scored, slugging percentage and OPS. He could be the first player in history to hit 50 homers and steal 40 bases the same season.
The closest a DH came to winning the MVP was David Ortiz, who finished runner-up in 2005, and Edgar Martinez who finished third in 1995. Ohtani is the favorite at this juncture, battling with first baseman Bryce Harper of the Phillies and DH Marcell Ozuna of Atlanta.
Can the Yankees recover?
The Yankees looked like the best team in baseball, jumping out to a 49-22 record, and then looked like one of the worst teams by finishing the first half with a 9-18 stretch.
They were cruising along with the most runs (359), second-most homers (105) and the second-best OPS (.771), and suddenly stopped hitting with Anthony Volpe and Alex Verdugo badly struggling and Giancarlo Stanton going on the injured list.
It wasn’t just their offense, either, that tanked.
Their starting rotation had a 2.78 ERA, best in the major leagues through June 14, and then cratered with an MLB-worst 6.20 ERA.
They have the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the second half, but if they want to be playing deep into October, they have no choice but to get help.
Will the Dodgers live up to expectations?
You don’t drop $1.3 billion over the winter and expect anything less than a World Series championship.
Yet, for a team absolutely loaded with talent, they have far too many questions to be comfortable.
How’s Clayton Kershaw going to pitch when he comes back? Will Walker Buehler ever regain his form?
What happens when Mookie Betts returns, and where is he playing? Can the bottom of the order improve?
Is the bullpen built for a long October?
So many questions, with time running out for answers.
Anything less than a World Series championship would be one of the most disappointing seasons in Dodgers history.
Around the basepaths
– The Yankees, for the first time, are willing to include No. 1 prospect Spencer Jones in a trade for White Sox ace Garrett Crochet or Tigers Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal.
The White Sox, however, are holding out for a bigger package from the Yankees and others.
– The Los Angeles Dodgers have spoken to the White Sox about a blockbuster that would include Crochet, center fielder Luis Robert and perhaps reliever Michael Kopech, too.
– The Detroit Tigers are engaged in talks with the Baltimore Orioles and Dodgers for Skubal.
It’s a longshot that Skubal will be traded, but the Tigers are listening, and have told teams they will move him only if they are overwhelmed by an offer.
Certainly, the Orioles have the talented prospects to pull off a deal, centering around Jackson Holliday, and may become the World Series favorites if they acquire Skubal to team with Corbin Burnes at the top of the rotation.
– The Boston Red Sox and Yankees have had talks with the Chicago Cubs about starter Jameson Taillon, but the Cubs are undecided whether they will be buyers or sellers.
– The Philadelphia Phillies have no interest in Miami Marlins center fielder Jazz Chisholm, have shied away from Chicago White Sox outfielder Tommy Pham and don’t believe that Oakland A’s outfielder Brent Rooker is a fit.
– Toronto Blue Jays shortstop Bo Bichette has told friends that he would welcome a trade, while first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr. badly wants to stay in Toronto and is open to signing a long-term extension.
– The best reliever available on the market, executives say, is Marlins closer Tanner Scott. Scott is yielding a 1.30 ERA and has struck out 46 batters in 41 ⅔ innings.
The Phillies are keeping a close eye on Scott with closer Jose Alvarado’s recent struggles (4.35 ERA) and badly want another late-inning reliever.
– If the Mets stumble out of the gate the second half – or even try to be a buyer and seller simultaneously – they will have some attractive trade pieces in starters Jose Quintana, Luis Severino and Sean Manaea.
– Toronto Blue Jays first baseman Joey Votto, who has not played a game for the Blue Jays this season with ankle and back issues, is telling friends that he expects to return to the big leagues in August. He certainly would like to be active when the Blue Jays host the Cincinnati Reds, the only major-league team he has played for in his career, on Aug. 19-21.
– Colorado Rockies All Star third baseman Ryan McMahon has been assured by Rockies GM Bill Schmidt that he will not be traded.
– Dodgers three-time Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is expected to make his 2024 debut within the next 10 days.
– The Seattle Mariners blew a 10-game lead in just 24 games, the quickest a team has lost a 10-game lead in the divisional era. The previous record was the Angels’ 10-game lead vanishing in 33 games in 1995.
– Perhaps no player is more important to a team’s chances for the postseason than Padres pitcher Dylan Cease, who is 9-8 with a 3.76 ERA, and leads the league with 159 strikeouts. The Padres need him to be their ace the second half with Yu Darvish on the restricted list and Joe Musgrove still hurt.
– The St. Louis Cardinals have strong interest in White Sox veteran starter Erick Fedde.
– While GMs are more reluctant than ever to give up prized prospects for a short-term fix for the pennant race, players will tell you that there’s no greater adrenaline boost than seeing a new player walker through the clubhouse door.
“We got to the deadline and didn’t get anybody,” Mets DH J.D. Martinez told Newsday of his 2021 Red Sox. “We needed help and we had to grind all the way back. Fortunately, we snuck into the wild card, but we saw teams all around us get better and we didn’t. …
“I remember how demoralizing it was for the team, doing the opposite thing. Obviously, there’s a price and a cost. That has to be reasonable. But it’s definitely big. I know teams feel it, clubhouses feel it.”
– This was the fewest amount of high school players selected in the draft this year than any in the first 20 rounds in the draft’s history.
– Has there ever been a greater starting rotation on the injured list than the Dodgers in baseball history?
Clayton Kershaw, Shohei Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, Walker Buehler, Dustin May, Tony Gonsolin and Emmet Sheehan.
– RIP Pat Daugherty, the beloved former Colorado Rockies scouting director and special assistant. The funeral services are Monday in Aurora, Colo.
– For the first time in more than a half-century, the Athletics are not listed on the baseball schedule as “OAK.” Instead, the 2025 schedule has “ATH” representing the franchise, which is spending the next three seasons playing at the Giants’ Triple-A ballpark in Sacramento while constructing their new ballpark in Las Vegas.
– Cubs ace Shota Imanaga is thrilled that the team will open the 2025 season against the Dodgers at the Tokyo Dome.
“In Japan, that’s where I grew as a player and the fans kept rooting for me,” Imanaga told reporters. “So I want to show them how I grew over here. … I want to prepare so that I’m not an embarrassment or anything for them.”
– There were 23 pitches recorded at 100 mph or higher at the All-Star Game, eight by Athletics closer Mason Miller.
– RIP Pat Williams, the former longtime NBA executive and Orlando Magic co-founder, who was trying to bring a baseball expansion franchise to Orlando. Williams, 84, died of complications from viral pneumonia.
– It’s incredible that four Hall of Famers all grew up within a 3 ½-mile radius in St. Paul, Minnesota: Dave Winfield, Paul Molitor, Jack Morris and now Joe Mauer.
The only other entire city that tops St. Paul is Mobile, Alabama, with Hank Aaron, Satchel Paige, Willie McCovey, Billy Williams and Ozzie Smith.
– MLB is exploring the possibility of permitting its players to play in the 2028 Olympics, thrilling Phillies star Bryce Harper.
“You want to grow the game, right?,” Harper said. “Why not grow it at the peak of (sports)? Growing up, playing Junior Olympics, putting the nation’s colors on your chest, there’s nothing like it. No greater feeling than your country winning and hearing the anthem last. I’m hoping we can get something done. It’s tough, logistically, but it would be a lot of fun to get baseball there and have the best players there, representing their country.”
– The San Diego Padres are aggressively looking for help, but are telling teams that prized catching prospect Ethan Salas is untouchable.
– Finally! The Tampa Bay Rays, at last, have a deal for a new ballpark with the St. Petersburg City Council approving a $1.3 billion stadium as part of a $6.5 billion redevelopment on the site. Rays owner Stuart Sternberg hugged St. Pete mayor Ken Welch after the vote.
All that remains now to make it official is a vote from the Pinellas County Commission to spend $312.5 million of tourist tax revenue on the stadium.
– NL pitchers who fear Coors Field, take note:
San Francisco Giants starter Kyle Harrison became the first visiting pitcher in Coors Field history to have two scoreless starts of at least five innings in the same season. He is undefeated in four career starts with a 2.45 ERA at Coors Field, the lowest by any visiting pitcher with multiple starts.
– There are six players in MLB history who have hit at least 350 home runs with their first coming off a future Hall of Famer:
- Willie Mays (660 homers) hit his first off Warren Spahn.
- Darrell Evans (414) hit his first off Bob Gibson.
- Harold Baines (384) hit his first off Jim Palmer
- Frank Howard (382) hit his first off Robin Roberts
- Luis Gonzalez (354) hit his first off Greg Maddux
- Ellis Burks (352) hit his first off Don Sutton.
Dodgers first baseman Freddie Freeman, who has 335 career homers, will soon be join the list, hitting his first career homer off Roy Halladay.
– Tough year for interpreters: The Chicago Cubs fired right fielder Seiya Suzuki’s long-time interpreter, Toy Matsushita, during the All-Star break. They replaced him with Shota Imanaga’s interpreter, Edwin Stanberry, and video coordinator Nao Masamoto.
– The Milwaukee Brewers are going to have a couple of key acquisitions join them later this month without doing a thing.
All-Star closer Devin Williams, who has been out all season with stress fractures in his back, has begun his rehab assignment and should be ready in a few weeks. He would resume in his role as closer while Trevor Megill, who saved 18 games in 20 opportunities, will return to his setup role.
The Brewers also are expected to have starter DL Hall rejoin the rotation after being out since April 20 with a left knee sprain, along with starter Joe Ross and reliever Jared Koenig.
“That’s a lot coming our way,” Brewers manager Pat Murphy says. “That’s our trade deadline.”
– You looking for early holiday gifts? The Heritage Auction Summer Platinum Sports Auction is offering Babe Ruth’s “Called Shot’ 1932 World Series jersey for an estimated $30 million.
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