On Tuesday we’ll know if the United States U-23s are going to the knockout state of the Olympics after their match against Guinea. It’s clear what they need to do, win and they’re through but a draw or less will make things quite tricky. If the United States can start quickly like they did against New Zealand it will be good, but in a pressure situation, Marko Mitrovic will need to manage nerves to ensure that his team is ready to go.
Here’s what to watch for:
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Looking at midfield
Midfield is where Guinea’s strengths lie. They used all of their overaged slots to bring midfielders to the tournament, so balance in that department has been a driving force. In Amadou Diawara, Naby Keita, and Abdoulaye Toure, Guinea were able to frustrate France only losing by a goal in their match. With the health of Gianluca Busio in limbo, the United States could be without yet another midfielder after the move of Aidan Morris to Middlesbrough caused them to shuffle the setup at the last second before the Olympics.
Tanner Tessmann, Djordje Mihailovic, and Busio have combined well to lead the United States midfield so far during the Olympics but with a small squad, Mitrovic won’t want to shake things up at such an important time. If Busio can’t go, Jack McGlynn would be the likely replacement bringing more of an attacking presence, but less defensive bite to the match.
False nine?
Playing as a striker is about more than just scoring goals, but being able to score is also pretty important too. While Duncan McGuire put in a solid shift defensively against New Zealand, he still wasn’t able to find the back of the net as it felt like the attack was operating around him instead of with him. When he left the match for Griffin Yow, Paxten Aaronson slid into the middle and immediately scored via a Yow assist. His immediate impact is something that can’t be taken for granted as Mitrovic is setting up his lineup for the match.
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It’s good to have players like Yow off the bench, but when getting off to a strong start is critical, Yow beginning the match on the wing seems like the way to go. There isn’t much more that he can do to push for a start after also putting in a strong shift from the bench against France but Mitrovic hasn’t made a lineup change yet.
Advancement scenarios
- With a victory against Guinea: The United States will qualify for the knockout round. While France or New Zealand can still win the group, if one of them were to win their match against the other, it would see the United States still finish second via goal difference.
- With a draw against Guinea: The United States will only qualify for the knockout round if New Zealand lose or draw while still having a worse goal difference than the United States.
- With a loss against Guinea: Things get quite tough for the United States. They have a goal difference of zero so losing by one goal to Guinea while New Zealand also lose to France would bring it to the second tiebreaker in all matches which is goals scored in the group stage. The United States would only advance in that 1-0 loss scenario due to scoring more goals than Guinea but losing by more than one goal would see Guinea advance on goal difference and New Zealand picking up a point would see them jump ahead on points.
How to watch
- Date: Tuesday, July 30 | Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Stade Geoffroy-Guichard — Saint-Etienne, France
- TV: USA | Live stream: Fubo (try for free)
- Odds: United States -225; Draw +290; Guinea +475
