Topline
Vice President Kamala Harris has a narrow edge over former President Donald Trump in the crucial swing state of Nevada, where an erosion of support among Latino voters threatens to hurt her chances of winning the state in November.
Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Findlay Toyota Center on October 13, … [+]
Key Facts
Harris has a 0.6-point edge in Nevada, according to Five Thirty Eight’s polling average, while an Emerson poll released last week found her leading by one point, 48% to 47%, after the two were tied at 48% in September, and a Wall Street Journal poll shows Trump with an unusually large five-point advantage.
Nevada—which is the smallest swing state, with just six electoral votes—has voted for Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, and President Joe Biden beat Trump there by 2.4 points in 2020.
Support for Harris among Latino voters will be crucial to her success in both Arizona and Nevada, where Hispanic and Latino people make up about 30% of the population and polls show she has lost support among the key demographic.
Biden carried Latino voters in Nevada over Trump 61% to 35% in 2020, according to CNN exit polls, while Harris leads Trump 56% to 40% in Nevada, according to an October USA Today/Suffolk University poll of Latino voters.
Harris is particularly struggling with Latino men, according to the survey that found 53% of male Latino voters ages 18-34 in Nevada support Trump and 40% support Harris, while 53% of Latino men ages 35-49 in the state support Trump and 39% support Harris.
Immigration and inflation top the list of Latino voter concerns in Nevada, according to the USA Today/Suffolk poll, which found 37% said inflation was their top concern and 17% said immigration.
Big Number
56%. That’s the share of Latino voters who identified with the Democratic Party in 2016, compared to 49% who do in 2024, according to a September NBC News/Telemundo/CNBC poll.
Tangent
Nevada is one of four swing states, in addition to Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan, where Harris has an edge over Trump, according to Five Thirty Eight averages. Trump leads by narrow margins in North Carolina, Georgia and Arizona. Harris has a razor-thin edge in national polling.
Key Background
The Harris campaign is making a last-minute appeal to Hispanic men in Arizona, Pennsylvania and Nevada with a “Hombres con Harris” tour featuring members of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus, including Rep. Ruben Gallego, D-Ariz., who is running against Trump ally Kari Lake for the Senate in Arizona. The tour will include stops at Latino-owned small businesses, sports bars, restaurants, union halls and other community venues frequented by Latino men, her campaign said.
Further Reading
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Latest Surveys As Race Tightens (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Crucial Swing State In Latest Poll (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads In Latest Survey (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Holds Surprise 1-Point Lead In New Survey (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Overtakes Harris’ Lead (Forbes)
