The global low-carbon transition continues to push forward despite policy headwinds, but it’s taking a disorderly route. After geopolitical fractures grew in 2025, the coming year will test if divisions deepen or result in new alliances and initiatives to maintain momentum — with tests including the launch of the EU carbon border tariff Jan. 1, a net-zero shipping deal due for reconsideration in October and the COP31 summit in Turkey in November. The year will also provide important clues on the impact of geopolitical turmoil on the rollout of renewable energy as technological advances and market forces take the helm from policy in setting the transition’s pace. Here, we outline 10 of the top issues that will shape the transition in 2026.
