While Trae Young’s 3-point efficiency leaves something to be desired, his high volume is giving us value on a low 2.5-make line.
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New year, same me. The quickest and most enjoyable process to betting NBA player props on a day with a full slate is to find a defense that fails at defending the arc and an offense that capitalizes on that weakness. That exact thought has pointed me toward a few NBA picks before tip on Wednesday, January 1.
Best NBA player props today
Picks made on 1-1 at 12:30 p.m. ET.
NBA player props for January 1
Prop bet #1: Trae Young Over 2.5 threes
There’s a bit of a shock that this prop is not a full made 3-pointer higher. Trae Young has taken 10 threes per game in his last four, making 4.25 of them.
This prop is as low as 2.5 because he’s not necessarily shooting well in the last month, though he is certainly still shooting plenty. He has fallen short of this prop in five of 11 games in the last month, but he has taken fewer than seven 3-pointers only twice.
The latter thought should be the driving factor tonight. The Denver Nuggets rank No. 26 in the NBA in the last month in attempted threes allowed per game at 40.1. If giving up that many looks from deep, Young will exaggerate that.
Even as he’s hitting just 33.6% of his 3-pointers this season, a hefty shooting night from Young should get him to at least a trio of threes from deep.
Prop bet #2: Josh Giddey Over 1.5 threes
No one in the NBA has given up more looks from deep per game in the last month than the Washington Wizards. Only the Celtics have taken more 3-pointers per game in the last month than the Chicago Bulls. Hey, look at that, the Bulls face the Wizards tonight.
That’s the only scenario that creates value in betting on Josh Giddey from deep. He was traded from the Thunder in large part because he cannot be trusted from long range, but his volume tonight should deem this a worthwhile bet.
He’s averaging 4.0 attempted threes per game this season, and much of an uptick beyond that against the Wizards will create a likelihood that he hits at least two. And in two games returning from an ankle injury, Giddey has attempted six and nine 3-pointers, suggesting he may not even need Washington’s defensive generosity to heave with some volume.
The Wizards do not inherently give up a bounty of good looks from deep, but they should devote that quality defense to the likes of Zach LaVine and Coby White. Giddey should see open looks, many of them, at which point hitting just two of them is more likely than not, no matter what these NBA odds say.
Prop bet #3: Bilal Coulibaly Over 1.5 threes
In the last month, only three teams have given up more looks from deep per game than the Bulls. Only five teams have taken more 3-pointers per game in the last month than the Wizards. Hey, look at that: the Wizards face the Bulls tonight.
At the risk of an eye-roll from the Covers editorial desk, let’s keep this echo going.
Because that’s the only scenario that creates value in betting on Bilal Coulibaly from deep. The 20-year-old is hardly trusted from long range, but his volume tonight should deem this a worthwhile bet.
He’s averaging 4.0 attempted threes per game this season, and much of an uptick beyond that against the Bulls will create a likelihood Coulibaly hits at least two. And in his last three games, he has already taken 6.3 threes per game, suggesting he may not even need Chicago’s defensive generosity to heave with some volume.
This echo is not solely lazy handicapping, it’s also all applicable. Just like the Wizards, the Bulls do not inherently give up a bounty of good looks from deep, but they should devote that quality defense to the likes of Jordan Poole. Coulibaly should see open looks, many of them, at which point hitting just two of them is more likely than not, no matter what these odds say.
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NBA odds today
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