The first game of the 2025-26 season is still almost six weeks away, but no one ever let a calendar get in the way of a good guesstimate.
ESPN’s Joe Lunardi has released his latest super-early projection for the 2026 NCAA Tournament, and Arizona will once again be among the top seeds in the field as it has been each of the previous four years under Tommy Lloyd.
The Wildcats are projected to be a No. 3 seed in the South Region, which would earn them an opening weekend in San Diego for first and second round games. The UA was the South No. 1 seed in 2022 and began their tourney in San Diego, beating Wright State and TCU en route to the Sweet 16.
Lunardi has Arizona opening against South Dakota State, which cannot happen since Arizona faces the Jackrabbits during nonconference play. The other projected No. 14 seeds are Arkansas State, Charleston and Furman.
Ohio State, Miami or Texas A&M would be Arizona’s projected second round matchup, and if it made the Sweet 16 for the fourth time in five seasons it would be in Houston potentially against No. 2 seed St. John’s. Also in that part of the bracket, though, is Texas, now coached by former UA coach Sean Miller.
Lunardi has the Big 12 projected to get eight teams into the 2026 field, with Houston earning a No. 1 seed, BYU getting a No. 2 seed and Iowa State joining Arizona on the No. 3 seed line. Also projected to make the tourney from the Big 12 are Kansas, Cincinnati, Texas Tech and Baylor.
Arizona’s loaded nonconference slate features six projected NCAA tourney teams, beginning with defending national champ Florida on Nov. 3 in Las Vegas. The Gators are projected as the No. 1 seed in the South Region.
UConn is projected as a No. 2 seed, Auburn and UCLA are projected as No. 4 seeds, Alabama is a No. 5 and San Diego State a No. 10.
