The July 4 holiday weekend is on the horizon, and it will bring a ton of afternoon baseball over the next few days to bet on.
On Thursday, July 3, we have a shortened MLB slate, but there are plenty of star players to consider betting on in the prop market, including Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shohei Ohtani.
Ohtani is one of the players that I’m targeting in today’s edition of Daily Dinger – our best home run picks for SI Betting. The three-time league MVP has already hit the 30-homer mark in the 2025 season, and he has a great matchup against the Chicago White Sox on Thursday night.
Let’s break down the case for Ohtani to go yard – as well as two other players – for Thursday’s action.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.
Yainer Diaz to Hit a Home Run (+400)
The Houston Astros wrap up their series at Coors Field against the Colorado Rockies on Thursday, and I’m going to take a shot on Yainer Diaz going deep against lefty Kyle Freeland.
Freeland has allowed nine homers already in 2025, and he enters this start with a terrible 5.56 ERA.
Diaz thrives against left-handed pitching, even though he’s only gone deep three times against southpaws in 2025. He’s posted a slash line of .288/.315/.462 against lefties in 2025, hitting 57 points better than he is against righties.
The Colorado bullpen is also suspect, as it enters this game with a 4.57 ERA and 45 homers allowed in the 2025 season.
Riley Greene to Hit a Home Run (+280)
Detroit Tigers outfielder Riley Greene is on a tear right now, and I’m going to bet on him keeping it going on Thursday.
Greene has homered four times in his last six games (five starts), and he’s pushed his season-long home run total to 21 with six in the last two weeks.
Thursday features a terrific matchup for the Tigers star, as they’re facing the Washington Nationals and Jake Irvin, who has allowed 19 home runs in 17 starts this season. Irvin was rocked by the Los Angeles Angels last week, giving up nine runs (eight earned) and three homers in 4.1 innings of work.
20 of Greene’s 21 home runs have come against right-handed pitching, and he’s posted an insanely impressive .322/.363/.648 slash line against them. He’s an easy bet to make on Thursday evening.
Shohei Ohtani to Hit a Home Run (+130)
Ohtani has crushed right-handed pitching, per usual, in the 2025 season.
He’s hitting .276 with a 1.066 OPS and 24 home runs against righties, and he should thrive against Chicago starter Aaron Civale on Thursday.
Civale enters this start with seven home runs allowed in eight appearances this season, and he’s posted a 4.74 ERA and 1.50 WHIP. He’s faced Ohtani six times in his career, allowing just one hit, but I have a hard time trusting him given his rough start to 2025.
Ohtani has three homers in his last six games and five homers in his last 12 games. He also could benefit from facing a White Sox bullpen that has allowed 37 home runs so far in 2025.
Even at +130, the NL MVP favorite is worth a look in this market.
Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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