Throughout the NFL season, I release my favorite bets and break them down in two main articles. The Road to 272 Bets comes out on Tuesday mornings and includes my favorite bets on a side or total for every game. The Player Prop Countdown then comes out on Thursdays, which is where I give my favorite player props.
There is one issue for those of you who don’t place your bets until Sunday morning. If you go back and read those aforementioned articles, the lines and odds have already moved throughout the week for most games due to injuries, incoming bets, and other factors that affect the betting market.
To help those of you who are looking for some value bets based on Sunday morning’s lines, Mac’s Sunday Slate is here for you. In this article, I’m going to break down my favorite plays based on odds that are widely available before kickoff this morning.
5 Best NFL Bets Today
- Ravens +3.5 (-115) vs. Bills via PointsBet
- Trevor Lawrence UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-114) via DraftKings
- Jake Bates OVER 7.5 Kicking Points (-117) via Caesars
- Browns +3.5 (-109) vs. Steelers via BetRivers
- Patriots -7.5 (+100) vs. Dolphins via PointsBet
Best Bet No. 1: Ravens +3.5 (-115) vs. Bills
When a team only has one loss on their schedule, and they have the best quarterback in football on their roster, a lot of their issues are overlooked. That’s the case for the Bills, whose defense has been horrendous this season, ranking 30th in both opponent EPA per play and opponent success rate. They are the only defense in football that ranks in the bottom three in both of those metrics.
I hesitate to lay more than a field goal on any team with that bad of a defense, especially when that defense potentially has to face another MVP candidate at quarterback.
I’ll take the points with Baltimore on Sunday.
Best Bet No. 2: Trevor Lawrence UNDER 0.5 Interceptions (-114)
One of Trevor Lawrence’s biggest strengths this season has been his discipline and accuracy in throwing the ball. He has a bad throw percentage of just 10.8%, which is the lowest mark amongst all NFL quarterbacks. He and the Jaguars get to face a depleted Colts team in a game where Lawrence likely won’t have to throw often for Jacksonville to win. Let’s bet on him to not tonot throw an interception.
Best Bet No. 3: Jake Bates OVER 7.5 Kicking Points (-117)
Jake Bates might have a busy day on Sunday. Not only do the Lions have one of the best offenses in the NFL and will put themselves in scoring position several times throughout the game, but the Vikings’ defense ranks first in the league in opponent red zone touchdown scoring percentage, keeping teams to three points or fewer on 23.08% of red zone trips against them. That means Bates may be called on for a field goal attempt multiple times on Sunday.
Best Bet No. 4: Browns +3.5 (-109) vs. Steelers
This is the first rematch of the 2026 season, with these two teams already having faced each other back in Week 4. Not only did the Browns win that game by a score of 27-24, but they also outgained the Steelers in that game, 6.0 yards per play to 5.6 yards per play.
Believe it or not, there’s not much to separate these two teams. They both have below-average offenses, with the Steelers having the advantage in EPA, but the Browns outranking them in success rate. They’re both top 10 in EPA and success rate defensively.
In what should be a close, defensive battle, I’ll take the team getting more than a field goal’s worth of points.
Best Bet No. 5: Patriots -7.5 (+100) vs. Dolphins
I was in on the Dolphins last week, but that was a one-week venture. I’ll take my winnings and go home by betting against them a week later. Miami can cover as underdogs against fellow bad teams, but they don’t have the skill or talent to hang with playoff-caliber teams, which the Patriots certainly are.
Drake Maye and the Patriots’ passing offense have been better than people are giving them credit for. They rank fifth in the league in dropback EPA and second in dropback success rate. That’s good enough to torch a bad Dolphins defense.
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