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André Snellings
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Eric Moody
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Eric Moody
ESPN Writer
- Eric Moody is a writer for fantasy football, men’s and women’s basketball, and sports betting at ESPN. Eric joined ESPN in 2021 after working as a senior fantasy analyst at Pro Football Network. Prior to that, he spent much of his career as a manager at a Fortune 100 financial services company.
Game 6 of the NBA Finals tips off Thursday night, with the Oklahoma City Thunder just one game away from their first championship since moving to the Sooner State. The Thunder won Game 5 120-109 over the Indiana Pacers, thanks to 40 points from Jalen Williams to take that 3-2 lead.
The series heads back to Indianapolis, where these teams split Games 3 and 4. The Pacers are not only trying to stave off elimination but evaluating star Tyrese Haliburton, who is dealing with a calf strain.
Here are our analysts’ bets that stand out.
Odds are as of publication time. For the most up-to-date odds, visit ESPN BET
Andrew Nembhard over 15.5 total points and assists (-110). This pick leans into the news that Tyrese Haliburton is battling a calf strain that limited him in Game 5, and the likelihood that the other Pacers perimeter players will need to step up and help carry the offense-creation load in Game 6. Nembhard is the second point guard in the starting lineup, and the one with the best playoffs track record of stepping up when tapped. Even playing next to a healthy Haliburton, Nembhard topped 15.5 P+A in six of his first seven playoffs games this season and in 10 games overall this postseason, including Game 1 of the Finals. But it was last season’s Eastern Conference finals, when Haliburton was battling injury, when Nembhard stepped up the most. In that series he averaged 21.0 PPG and 7.8 APG overall, and those numbers increased to 28.0 PPG and 9.5 APG in the two home games he played in the series. So the upside is there for Nembhard to put big numbers on the board if the Pacers ask it of him Thursday. — Snellings
Alex Caruso over 9.5 points (-125). The Thunder’s role players tend to show up on the road. With the Pacers’ season on the line, they’ll want someone other than Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams to beat them, which should create some open looks for Caruso. He’s one of the most consistent players with immense upside and should see ample minutes. Caruso has averaged 29.5 minutes per game in the Finals and has cleared this line in three of five games. He has also surpassed this mark in eight of 10 games this season when playing 27 or more minutes. — Moody
Pascal Siakam over 28.5 total points and rebounds (-115). Siakam has been the Pacers’ best player in the Finals, and overall he has averaged 22.8 PPG and 6.3 RPG (29.1 P+R) in his past 12 games while going over 28.5 six times. I expect the Pacers to lean even more heavily on Siakam on Thursday night, playing at home in a must-win Game 6 with Haliburton dealing with a calf-injury of unknown severity. Siakam is the Pacers’ impact player with championship experience and will be expected to lead the way. — Snellings
Projections and injury reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Oklahoma City Thunder at Indiana Pacers
8:30 p.m. ET
Line: Thunder -6.5 (-105) | Pacers 6.5 (-115)
Money line: Thunder -230 | Pacers +195
Total: 221.5 (-110 O, -110 U)
BPI Projection: Thunder by 1.9, straight up 56%, 226.1 total points.
Injury Report:
Thunder: Nikola Topic, (OFS – Knee)
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Calf); Jarace Walker, (OUT – Ankle); Isaiah Jackson, (OFS – Achilles)
