In a shift that’s reshaping the Lone Star State’s recruiting landscape, Big 12 programs like Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, and Houston are increasingly snatching top Texas prospects once assumed headed to Texas or Texas A&M.
The trend is clear: a new wave of in-state competition is emerging.
Traditionally, over half the top-10 prospects in Texas pledged to either Texas or Texas A&M. But in the 2026 cycle, only two of those nine top prospects have signed with one of the bluebloods. That leaves the rest heading to other in-state programs or going out of state entirely.
Texas Tech currently holds 67 percent of its commits from Texas high schools—the lion’s share of its 2026 class is local talent. Nearly Baylor’s entire class to this point has come from Texas, including multiple four-star prospects such as DL Jamarion Carlton, CB Jamarion Vincent, and WR London Smith. Meanwhile, Houston’s 2026 class includes five in-state commits, headlined by QB Keisean Henderson, another strong local showing.
That momentum is carried in the wake of NIL-era changes and program investment. Texas Tech, under coach Joey McGuire, has aggressively spent on NIL and recruiting structures, second only to Texas in payroll spending, to attract elite state talent.
At Baylor, TCU, and Houston, deliberate recruiting strategies built around local staff and alumni networks are paying dividends. These programs are no longer merely complementary; they’re credible alternatives in the eyes of recruits who grew up inside Texas.
From Waco to Lubbock to Fort Worth, the message is consistent: If you’re a top Texas athlete, you don’t have to leave the state or go to the traditional powers to stay close to home and compete.
As the recruiting landscape continues to evolve, the old script is being rewritten. The new reality: blue bloods no longer have a monopoly. The next generation of Texas players has more in-state options than ever.
