For college sports fans turning their full attention to basketball after Indiana’s thrilling College Football Playoff National Championship Game win over Miami, welcome to what’s been a captivating season thus far. Freshmen stars are once again a feature of the sport, the high-major conference hierarchy is well-balanced and the race for No. 1 seeds in the NCAA Tournament features many worthy challengers.
If you’re looking for an Indiana-type underdog to cheer for, Nebraska fits the bill. The Cornhuskers, picked to finish 14th in the Big Ten before the season, are one of two remaining unbeaten high-major programs along with Arizona.
Like the pre-Curt Cignetti football Hoosiers, Nebraska is a program with no history to draw upon, which makes its sudden ascension particularly stunning. The Cornhuskers have never won an NCAA Tournament game and finished just 14-45 in coach Fred Hoiberg’s first two seasons.
Yet, here they are as a No. 2 seed in the CBS Sports Bracketology model and not too far away from being a No. 1 seed. Major Big Ten challenges await against teams like Michigan and Purdue, who are both No. 1 seeds in our model, and predictive metrics suggest the Cornhuskers may be due for regression as the grind of league play wears on.
But any way you slice it, this has been and will likely continue to be a historic season for Nebraska.
Here is the latest output from the CBS Sports Bracketology model.
Bracketology top seeds
The NCAA Tournament field and seeding as projected by SportsLine’s Bracketology simulation
On the bubble
Last four in
First four out
Bracketology takeaways
Quad 1 prioritization
Our model is not a fan of teams that have yet to earn a Quad 1 victory. Take Utah State for example. The Aggies are a mere No. 10 seed, despite being ranked No. 21 in the NET, largely because they lack a Quad 1 win. Other top-40 NET teams without a Quad 1 win include Saint Mary’s, NC State, Ohio State and Indiana. The Buckeyes are narrowly in the field as one of the Last Four In at this point, but the others remain on the wrong side of the bubble.
Even a single Quad 1 victory would do wonders for any of their resumes. Sometimes one is all it takes. Just ask North Carolina, which made the First Four last season with a dismal 1-12 record in Quad 1.
Buckyball on the rise
Four of Texas A&M’s five Quad 1/2 victories have come in the new year as the Aggies have started 4-1 in the SEC under first-year coach Bucky McMillan. As a result, A&M is tied with Florida atop the SEC standings and inside the cut line as a No. 9 seed.
What must be maddening for Texas A&M is just how close it is to being 5-0 with another strong Quad 1 victory. Last week’s double-overtime loss at Tennessee is the only thing standing between Buckyball and solo possession of first place in the league along with an even better Bracketology standing.
Nevertheless, A&M is trending up as it enters a manageable but dangerous week that incudes home games against Mississippi State and South Carolina. The Aggies project as comfortable favorites in both games, but they are currently Quad 3 contests. Texas A&M has built up some solid resume material over the past three weeks, but much of it could come undone in a flash with poor performances against the Bulldogs or Gamecocks.
Teetering Seton Hall
Seton Hall’s two-game skid, which includes a Quad 2 Saturday home loss to Butler, has placed the Big East in a precarious position. The Pirates are hanging on in the bracket as a No. 9 seed entering Tuesday night’s showdown at St. John’s inside Madison Square Garden.
Another loss would move the Pirates one step closer to the bubble and the Big East one step closer to potential three-bid territory. Butler and Creighton aren’t dead yet, but they are squarely outside the at-large picture right now. Seton Hall is the conference’s best bet for another at-large bid beyond the group of UConn, St. John’s and Villanova.
A top-10 defense is giving coach Shaheen Holloway’s club a chance, but with KenPom.com’s No. 144 ranked offense, Seton Hall must grind for everything it gets. It’s going to be a tense stretch run in New Jersey.
Rematch rules
Amid conference consolidation and the proliferation of nonconference matchups between high-major schools, the NCAA Tournament selection committee faces challenges when it comes to avoiding regular season rematches. The 2025 NCAA Tournament bracket featured three potential second-round games between conference teams, although none of them came to fruition.
The committee will still seek to minimize conference meetings and nonconference rematches, and our model is coded to do the same. However, NCAA bracketing principles permit games between conference teams in the second round, so long as the teams in question played each other just once before the NCAA Tournament. For conference teams that met twice prior to the NCAA Tournament, principles state they should not meet prior to the Sweet 16. If the teams played three times, NCAA bracketing principles state they should not play before the Elite Eight.
With regard to rematches of nonconference games, NCAA bracketing principles state that they should be avoided “in the First Four and first round.” The committee will also “attempt to avoid” nonconference rematches in the second round. But the committee has historically prioritized keeping teams on their natural seed line over changing their seed line for the sake of avoiding a rematch.
