Broncos 2025 playoff scenarios updated after week 15

Denver (12-2) became the first team in the AFC to clinch a playoff spot on Dec. 14, beating Green Bay 34-26 at Lambeau Field.

Quarterback Bo Nix threw for four touchdowns in the game, which combined with a series of other results locked up a playoff spot for Denver. The Broncos also increased their lead for the top seed in the AFC as the New England Patriots lost to Buffalo.

Denver can clinch a lot more if it beats the Jacksonville Jaguars on Dec. 21 and gets some help from Dallas, Cleveland and Baltimore.

 Here’s a look at what the Broncos can lock up in week 16.

How can the Broncos win the AFC West?

Denver can clinch the AFC West in week 16, claiming the title for the first time since 2015 with a win and a Los Angeles Chargers loss.

The Broncos magic number to win the division is 2, meaning any combination of Denver victories and losses by the Chargers (10-4) totaling 2 over the rest of the season locks up the title. So a Broncos win over Jacksonville combined a Chargers loss to Dallas would get the job done on Dec. 21.

The Chargers do hold a tiebreaker advantage having beaten the Broncos earlier in the season and having a better record in the AFC West. If they end up with identical overall records, the Chargers will either have swept the season series with Denver or split it but finished with a better record in the division, the first two tiebreakers.

How can the Broncos clinch home field advantage in the divisional round of the playoffs?

The simplest path is also for Denver to beat Jacksonville (10-5) and see the Chargers lose on Dec. 21.

Winning the AFC West would guarantee homefield advantage in at least the wildcard round of the playoffs. Once that happens, Denver cannot get lower than the No. 3 seed because the eventual AFC North champion cannot win as many games as the Broncos have already won.

The AFC South champion could also be eliminated next Sunday from contention for a top 2 seed if the Broncos beat Jacksonville. At that point, the Broncos would hold tiebreakers over both the Jaguars and the Texans (9-5), having beaten both teams head-to-head, while the Colts (8-6) cannot win as many games as the Broncos this season.

A Jacksonville win would still leave the door open for the Broncos to get home-field advantage in the second round of the playoffs, as Denver would still hold a one-game lead over the AFC South leader. But it would lose the tiebreaker to Jacksonville if it came down to those two teams.

Can the Broncos get the top seed in the playoffs in week 16?

Denver can clinch the top seed on Dec. 21 if four games go the Broncos’ way.

The only teams that could overtake the Broncos at this point are the Patriots (11-3), Chargers, Jaguars and Bills (10-4), and the complex tiebreakers do create a scenario where Denver can clinch in week 16.

Denver locks up the top seed if all of the following happen:

• The Broncos beat the Jaguars
• The Chargers lose to, or tie, the Cowboys
• The Bills lose to, or tie, the Browns
• The Patriots lose to the Ravens

Here is the Broncos’ schedule for the rest of the 2025 season. All times are MT:

• Sun. Dec. 21: vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, 2:05 p.m.
• Thu. Dec. 25: at Kansas City Chiefs, 6:15 p.m.
• Sat. Jan. 3 or Sun. Jan 4: vs. Los Angeles Chargers, time TBD

Nate Trela covers trending news in Colorado and Utah for the USA TODAY Network.