If the New England Patriots want the No. 1 seed in the AFC, they’ll have to earn it.
That’s in part because the Broncos refuse to do the Patriots any favors. Denver earned its ninth straight win Sunday night, edging the lowly Washington Commanders in overtime to improve to 10-2 and wrest the No. 1 seed back from New England. The Broncos have won four consecutive games by three points or fewer, relying on a ferocious defense and just enough clutch plays from quarterback Bo Nix to stay hot.
Of course, the Patriots can take the No. 1 seed right back from Denver if they beat the New York Giants on Monday night and improve to 11-2.
As for the rest of the AFC? There was a whole lot of movement behind the Patriots and Broncos — notably in the AFC South, where the Indianapolis Colts dropped their second straight game to slide to the No. 6 seed.
Here’s a look the AFC playoff picture, from current standings to the race for seeding to current postseason matchups if the season ended today:
Editor’s Note: This article will be updated after the Patriots’ Monday night game against the Giants.
Current AFC Standings
The Broncos have regained the AFC’s No. 1 seed after beating the Commanders in overtime on Sunday night. They own the tiebreaker over New England, which can move back into the No. 1 seed with a win Monday night.
- Denver Broncos (10-2, AFC West leader)
- New England Patriots (10-2, AFC East leader)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4, AFC South leader)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-6, AFC North leader)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-4)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4)
- Houston Texans (7-5)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-6)
Race for the No. 1 seed
The Broncos are the new No. 1 seed thanks to the tiebreaker they hold over the Patriots.
Tiebreakers for teams with the same record in the conference are 1) head-to-head record, 2) in-conference record and 3) record versus common opponents. New England doesn’t play Denver this season and both teams have 6-2 records against AFC competition, but the Broncos (4-0) have a better record against common opponents than the Patriots (3-1), who lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 1.
Both New England and Denver have four games remaining against AFC opponents, so those matchups could have a bearing on which team emerges with the tiebreaker if it comes into play.
Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for New England and Denver:
- Patriots: vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
- Broncos: at Raiders, vs. Packers, vs. Jaguars, at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
Race for the AFC East
The Patriots’ lead over the Bills is down to two games after Buffalo defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday, but New England can extend that lead to 2.5 games with a win Monday night.
Either way, the Patriots are very much in the driver’s seat for the AFC East. The Bills have a tough matchup next Sunday against the Cincinnati Bengals, who upset the Baltimore Ravens in Joe Burrow’s first game back from injury and are 3-0 in Burrow’s starts this season. Buffalo then faces a Patriots team coming off a Week 14 bye, and if New England wins that Week 15 matchup, it very well could clinch the division with three games remaining.
As for the tiebreaker situation: After head-to-head matchup, the second tiebreaker for divisional opponents is in-division record. The Patriots are currently 3-0 against the AFC East, while Buffalo is 2-2 after losing to New England and the Miami Dolphins.
So, if the Patriots beat the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Dolphins in Week 18, they’d finish 5-1 in the division and have a tiebreaker over the Bills by default.
Here’s a look at the remaining schedules for New England and Buffalo:
- Patriots: vs. Giants, BYE, vs. Bills, at Ravens, at Jets, vs. Dolphins
- Bills: vs. Bengals, vs. Patriots, at Browns, vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
Current playoff matchups
If the season ended today, here’s what the AFC Wild Card round would look like:
- No. 1 Broncos: BYE
- No. 2 Patriots vs. No. 7 Bills
- No. 3 Jaguars vs. No. 6 Colts
- No. 4 Ravens vs. No. 5 Chargers
The Wild Card race is incredibly tight at the moment, with the Ravens, Chargers and Colts all at 8-4. If the Patriots can earn the No. 1 seed, they’d get a first-round bye.
If they drop to No. 2, they would face the No. 7 seed, which could be any of the three teams mentioned above — or the surging Texans, who are one game out of a playoff spot at 7-5 after winning their fourth game in a row.
