While headlines in the mainstream financial media debate whether the U.S. economy is headed for a recession, a government’s own survey offers a clear picture: the nation’s small and medium-sized businesses are slowing down.
According to the latest edition of the Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) released by the Census Bureau on March 27, entrepreneurs report lower revenues, stagnant hiring and cutbacks in work hours. This survey, which collects biweekly perceptions from thousands of businesses across the country, serves as a key thermometer of the real economy: the one on the street, the one in businesses that employ millions, including a large portion of the Latino community.
The indices collected by BTOS show a clear trend so far this year. For the final part of March, signs of cooling remain. The overall business performance index dropped to 52.4 from 53.6 at the end of 2024. The revenue indicator increased to 41.3 from 40.3, but employment and hours worked hold below 50 (at 47.3 and 45.8, respectively) and down versus last year’s close, indicating that firms are not hiring additional staff or increasing their operation. In contrast, the only indicator that remains in the positive zone is that of delivery times (52.4), which suggests a certain operational stability, albeit in an environment of low demand.
These data confirm what was already being felt in various sectors: a cooling of business activity, just when the trade policies of Donald Trump’s government are intensifying and global uncertainty persists.
Widespread feeling
The business press has begun to sound the alarm bells. A Barron’s report titled “Small Businesses Are Stalling” highlights how the BTOS numbers may be the early sign of a broader economic slowdown. For its part, Reuters picks up that CFO optimism has fallen significantly since Trump announced new tariff plans, directly affecting many companies’ investment and expansion decisions.
In addition, the drop in consumer confidence -reported by AP as the lowest in 12 years- further complicates the picture. If people buy less, companies sell less. And that, for many small business owners, especially in sectors such as retail and food service, represents a perfect storm.
Impact for Latino Businesses
The Latino community, which represents more than 25% of the entrepreneurial force in the U.S., may be one of the hardest hit by this slowdown. According to the United States Hispanic Chamber of Commerce (USHCC), many Latino businesses are microenterprises that rely directly on day-to-day cash flow.
In addition, political uncertainty and constant regulatory changes also generate concern among Latino entrepreneurs who already face barriers to credit access, discrimination and less legal protection.
Although delivery times and business logistics remain stable – a positive index that remains above 52 points – experts warn that this is not enough to sustain business confidence if revenues do not rebound and domestic demand continues to weaken.
The federal government has not yet announced specific measures to respond to this slowdown, although some Democratic lawmakers have called for a new small business support package. For the moment, business owners – Latino and non-Latino – appear to be going into “defense mode,” adjusting operations as they wait for clarity on the economic horizon.
