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Buy or sell: Buy the playmaking, sell the goal-scoring
Speaking of strong starts, no team in NHL history has ever been better through 15 games this year’s Winnipeg Jets who improved to 14-1-0 after Saturday’s win over the Dallas Stars.
Starting goalie Connor Hellebuyck has been — as expected — the driving force behind the start, as well as the Jets’ core group of talented forwards and defenseman Joshua Morrissey.
Ehlers is one of those forwards.
If there is one thing you can say about Ehlers throughout his career, it is that you should have a pretty good idea of where his numbers are going to end up when each season is completed.
You can usually safely pencil him in for somewhere around 20-25 goals and between 55-65 points. He rarely goes for above or below either number.
Entering play on Sunday he is a little bit ahead of both paces, with nine goals and 18 total points in 15 games.
The goal-scoring pace is likely to drop down a little bit as his shooting percentage goes from its current 20 percent mark down a little closer to his normal 11-12 percent mark. But while the goal-scoring pace is likely to cool off, it is not out of the question to imagine his playmaking numbers to hold a little closer to where he is now. Mostly because he has at least produced at least relatively closer to this level from a playmaking perspective in other previous seasons. While his 2.5 assists per 60 minutes would be a career high, he has at least had five other seasons where that number has topped the 1.7 mark, including three years between 1.9 and 2.2 per 60 minutes.
He is currently scoring 2.2 goals per 60 minutes. He has only two times ever topped 1.3 goals per 60 minutes, and never been higher than 1.6.
His own personal history indicates the goal numbers will regress at some point, while the assist numbers may not have as far to slide the rest of the way. Especially if the rest of his teammates keep playing at a high level.
This is a perfectly timed career year for Ehlers as he is in the middle of a contract and playing for a new deal, whether it be in Winnipeg or somewhere else.
