The Texas Tech football team is in familiar territory, coming off a blowout loss at home to Baylor and must now turn around, head to Fort Worth, and try to take down the TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday in Amon G. Carter Stadium.
The Red Raiders (5-2, 3-1) faced the same scenario in 2022, and the Horned Frogs (4-3, 2-2) came out on top. Head coach Joey McGuire insists that everything is still in front of the Red Raiders, from becoming bowl-eligible to contending for a Big 12 championship. To do that, they’ll need to get past a TCU team that has the tools to expose Texas Tech’s secondary even more.
Can the Red Raiders get back on track, or will the Horned Frogs open up the wounds left by the Bears and finish the job?
When Texas Tech football runs the ball
The Red Raiders aren’t shy about handing the ball off to Tahj Brooks, who has rushed for more than 100 yards in all six games he has played this season. He’s also gone for at least 95 yards in each of his last 17 games dating back to last season. TCU, meanwhile, has not been able to stop the run this season. The Horned Frogs are 124th nationally in rushing yards allowed, having given up over 200 yards in games against Houston, SMU and UCF.
Advantage: Texas Tech
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When TCU football runs the ball
Like Texas Tech, TCU has a bell cow at running back in Cam Cook, who has 349 yards and six touchdowns on the ground. However, the Horned Frogs are a pass-heavy operation, meaning Cook’s opportunities are a bit limited. TCU did start using receiver Savion Williams in Wildcat packages as another rushing option. He had 72 yards on seven carries against the Utes. Texas Tech had handled rushing attacks well before Baylor gashed them for 255 yards. The Red Raiders must settle back in to help out its secondary.
Advantage: TCU
When Texas Tech passes the ball
Here’s the tricky situation for the Red Raiders. The offense has to go to the air to take pressure off Brooks at running back, but the Horned Frogs have done pretty well in defending the pass. TCU ranks 10th in the nation in pass yards allowed, which on paper means Behren Morton has his work cut out for him. But it must be mentioned that TCU also hasn’t really played a top-tier offense this year. UCF’s KJ Jefferson has the most pass yards against TCU this year, tossing for 230 in Week 3. That was Jefferson’s only good game of the season and he has since been benched. That being said, Texas Tech hasn’t faced too many defenses that have been good at defending the pass. Something has to give. We’ll give the Horned Frogs the edge here for being the home team, but it’s close.
Advantage: TCU
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When TCU football passes the ball
The answer to this one is obvious but we’ll give you the lowdown anyway. Josh Hoover is fourth in the nation in passing yards (2,270). Jack Bech is seventh in receiving yards (748). Texas Tech has the second-worst pass defense in the country ahead of only 2-5 Ball State. It’s a mismatch in every sense of the word. It should be noted that TCU is among the worst in the country in turnover margin and Hoover has thrown six interceptions this season.
Advantage: TCU
Texas Tech vs. TCU: The specialists
Neither team is very good at punting the ball — TCU ranks 13th and Tech 15th in the Big 12 in net punting. TCU has had some success in punt returns, which was a major thorn in Texas Tech’s side against Baylor. Texas Tech does have the edge in field goals, having not missed a kick yet while TCU’s Kyle Lemmermann is just 8-for-13 on the year.
Advantage: Texas Tech
Score prediction: TCU 39, Texas Tech 28
Bottom line: Perhaps it’s the stink of the Baylor game still hanging in the air. Both teams excel on offense, where the opponent is very vulnerable on defense. But this sets up for a Horned Frog victory and it’s up to the Red Raiders to prove it wrong.
