As we near the end of the college football regular season, sadness has begun to set in here at Oddly Specific.
Maybe it’s the fact that we’re about to endure the most lackluster week of the season in terms of marquee matchups. But I think it probably has more to do with the fact that our preseason picks are looking bleak right now.
Only four of the dozen teams I forecasted to make the SEC-Big Ten Invitational (aka the College Football Playoff) were in the projected field in the most recent rankings: Ohio State, Notre Dame, Georgia and Alabama.
Five consecutive weeks of going 5-4 picking straight-up winners has also dimmed the mood here. With a 64-44 overall record, we could use some luck down the stretch, like a lot of teams on the Playoff bubble.
We are still looking for our first stat-stuffer victory of the season.
Most passing yards
We’ve had some wild Friday night games this season, and there are two matchups worth tuning into this week if you like points. Hawaii plays at UNLV in a meaningful game involving two of the five teams tied for second place in the Mountain West conference with 4-2 records. Hawaii freshman Micah Alejado and UNLV junior Anthony Colandrea rank sixth and 24th, respectively, in passing yards per game. Each team averages more than 30 points. Colandrea gets more help, though, from his running game. Alejado throws for 400-plus yards and two TDs, but UNLV (-3) wins on a late field goal.
Most rushing yards
Nebraska and Penn State do not have any Playoff aspirations at this point. But the Nittany Lions (4-6, 1-6 Big Ten) are 9.5-point favorites at home against the Cornhuskers (7-3, 4-3) with a chance to keep their hopes of playing in a bowl game alive. Nebraska’s Emmett Johnson ranks fourth nationally in rushing yards per game, and Penn State’s Kaytron Allen ranks 19th — and neither team’s run defense is particularly good. Allen will have the better performance (200-plus yards, two TDs) on senior day in Happy Valley, and the Nittany Lions knock off the Cornhuskers by 7.
Kaytron Allen needs 138 yards over two games to tie Penn State’s all-time career rushing record. pic.twitter.com/4RfMwehATq
— Ben Jones (@Ben_Jones88) November 16, 2025
Most receiving yards
Florida State’s season began to unravel with a Friday night upset loss at Virginia back in September. The Seminoles (5-5) are 5-point favorites this Friday at NC State (5-5). The Wolfpack rank last nationally in passing yards allowed per game (299.9). FSU’s Duce Robinson is fifth in receiving yards per game and has put up three consecutive 100-yard performances. Robinson has another huge day (170-plus receiving yards, two TDs), and his team leaves Raleigh with a high-scoring 3-point win.
Five big games
No. 23 Missouri at No. 8 Oklahoma (-7.5)
Ahmad Hardy ran for 300 yards and three touchdowns to lead Missouri to a win over Mississippi State last weekend. Oklahoma’s run defense ranks third nationally in yards per game allowed (82.2) and second in yards per carry allowed (2.5). The Sooners also just need to beat the Tigers this week and LSU next week, both at home, to clinch a spot in the CFP. Missouri hasn’t won a game in Norman since 1966. John Mateer totals two touchdowns, and OU hangs on to beat the Tigers by 7.
Louisville at SMU (-3.5)
Rhett Lashlee’s team has a chance to get back to Charlotte for the ACC Championship Game if it wins out and gets a little help. SMU, coming off a bye week, is 13-1 in league play since joining the ACC last year. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have lost two in a row at home, to Cal and Clemson, to fall out of the ACC race. So, it’s fair to wonder what kind of motivation Louisville (7-3) will have for this 11 a.m. local kickoff in Dallas. Kevin Jennings does enough (250-plus yards, two TDs) to keep the Mustangs’ hopes alive, and SMU wins by two scores.
No. 16 USC at No. 6 Oregon (-9.5)
USC has a chance to make the College Football Playoff if it can pull off its first road upset under Lincoln Riley. The Trojans are 0-4 as a road underdog since Riley arrived in 2022. Oregon, meanwhile, is 23-2 as a home favorite in the Dan Lanning era. USC’s offense averages 38.2 points overall but only 27.5 on the road. Oregon’s defense is solid wherever it plays. The Ducks will hold USC to a season-low in offensive output (under 300 yards and 21 points) and run for over 200 yards to cover the spread.
Pittsburgh at No. 15 Georgia Tech (-2.5)
This is another huge game in the ACC race. Haynes King and the Yellow Jackets offense have rolled up more than 500 yards four times this season, including 628 in last week’s escape at Boston College. Pitt doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with Georgia Tech, but it has a better defense than what Tech has faced of late. Pitt, though, is only 8-23 as a road underdog since Pat Narduzzi took over in 2015, and Georgia Tech is 10-2 as a home favorite since 2023 under Brent Key. The Yellow Jackets lock up a spot in Charlotte with a come-from-behind win led by their star quarterback (300-plus total yards, three TDs).
𝐀𝐂𝐂 𝐐𝐁 𝐨𝐟 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐖𝐞𝐞𝐤 🏆 @haynes_king10
🎯 371 through the air
🎯 53 on the ground
🎯 Fifth ACC weekly honor this season#StingEm 🐝 pic.twitter.com/xo0n3Bn8TO— Georgia Tech Football (@GeorgiaTechFB) November 17, 2025
No. 11 BYU (-2.5) at Cincinnati
Kalani Sitake’s Cougars control their own destiny to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. Cincinnati needs to win out and get some help after being upset last week at home by Arizona. Bearcats quarterback Brendan Sorsby has looked awful in his last two starts (42.6 completion percentage, two TDs, three INTs). BYU’s defense, meanwhile, is coming off one of its best performances of the season in a 44-13 win over TCU. BYU, the hotter team, shuts Sorsby down (200-plus yards, one TD) and takes a big step toward a Big 12 title game berth with a two-score win over the Bearcats on the road.
Upset alert
Kentucky at No. 12 Vanderbilt (-9.5)
Vanderbilt’s Playoff odds took a hit during its bye week when Oklahoma knocked off Alabama. Losing here at home — or next week against rival Tennessee — would all but end the Commodores’ CFP dream. Weird things happen in November, and one of them has been watching Mark Stoops’ team win three games in a row to get to 5-5. Oddly, the road team has won the last four meetings in this series. Cutter Boley (250-plus total yards, two TDs) outduels Diego Pavia (230-plus total yards, two TDs), and Kentucky becomes bowl-eligible.
Reader predictions
The hits…
Jordon: “Oklahoma’s defensive line dominates Alabama and the kicker with the Richard Simmons shorts kicks the game winner. 20-17 Sooners.”
Fronk K.: “Georgia never trails and wins by three scores.”
The misses…
Jeff: “Iowa wins the turnover battle 3-0, and wins the game by 9 points.
Dexter H.: “Pittsburgh shocks Notre Dame and knocks ND out of the playoffs.”
Will: “Appalachian State goes to James Madison and wins ugly, derailing the Dukes’ conference title hopes for the second time in three years.”
Week 12 report card
The good: I nailed Notre Dame steamrolling Pittsburgh, Georgia covering the spread against Texas, San Diego State covering at home against Boise State, Jacksonville State’s upset of Kennesaw State in the Conference USA race and BYU taking care of TCU.
The bad: I was wrong about Duke and Darian Mensah (213 yards, one TD) having a big day against Virginia, USF beating Navy, Iowa pulling off an upset at USC and Oklahoma knocking off Alabama.
