Underdogs with a Chance to Change the Narrative
The Colorado Buffaloes find themselves in familiar territory this week as underdogs at home with a chance to change the narrative. Despite a 2-4 record and an 0-3 start in Big 12 play, the betting line for Saturday’s game against No. 22 Iowa State remains closer than some may have expected.
According to DraftKings, the Cyclones are 4.5-point favorites heading into the matchup at Folsom Field. It’s a spread that raised eyebrows, given Iowa State’s strong 5-1 start and Colorado’s recent struggles to hold onto leads.
Do the oddsmakers see something in the Buffs that could point to an upset?
Vegas Shows Faith in Colorado’s Potential
For all their inconsistencies this season, coach Deion Sanders’ Buffaloes have been competitive in nearly every game. They’ve led by a touchdown or more in three of their four losses and have shown they can go toe-to-toe with quality teams — at least for stretches.
Oddsmakers seem to recognize that potential.
Folsom Field has long been a tough place for visiting teams, and the atmosphere surrounding “Coach Prime” has only amplified that effect. Colorado has fed off the home crowd before, and Vegas appears to be factoring that edge into the line.
Offensive Line Emerges as a Bright Spot
Another element working in the Buffs’ favor is their offensive line. What was once a glaring weakness has become one of Colorado’s most reliable units. Anchored by left tackle Jordan Seaton, CU’s O-line has paved the way for a powerful ground attack that’s accounted for over 800 rushing yards this season.
Bolstered by a deep running back room — featuring Dallan Hayden, Micah Welch, DeKalon Taylor, Simeon Price, and even Drelon Miller, who’s contributed from the wideout position — Colorado has found rhythm and control when committing to the run.
If the Buffs can lean into that identity, they’re capable of keeping things close well into the second half.
Early Leads Haven’t Been the Problem
The Buffs have been underdogs in four games this season and have yet to secure a win, though they did cover the spread in their home loss to BYU.
While Colorado has struggled to close games, they’ve consistently started fast.
In Week 1 against Georgia Tech, the Buffs jumped out to a 7-0 lead after the first quarter. Against BYU, they led 14-3 after one, and against TCU, they were up 14-0 with just three minutes left in the second quarter.
While turnovers, penalties, and mental errors have kept the Buffs from sealing victories, one thing remains true — Colorado can punch first.
Iowa State Looks to Rebound, But Colorado Has the Edge at Home
Iowa State, meanwhile, is coming off a tough loss to Cincinnati. The Cyclones fell behind early and couldn’t quite dig themselves out of the hole, despite a late rally. That stumble seems to have made oddsmakers hesitant to overvalue the No. 22 team in the country, especially against a Colorado squad that has shown it can build early leads.
For the Buffs, this weekend’s matchup is an opportunity to prove that the flashes of potential fans have seen can finally translate into results.
Must-Win Territory for Coach Prime’s Squad
Too many games have slipped through Colorado’s fingers after fast starts this season. Costly turnovers, penalties, and lapses in execution have turned winnable matchups into frustrating losses. If they want to keep their bowl hopes alive, that trend has to stop now.
Whether they can finally close one out remains to be seen — but Vegas clearly believes this one won’t be a blowout.
While Iowa State looks to reassert control in the Big 12 race, Colorado has a chance to flip the narrative, regain control of its season, and prove that the early fireworks can finally be matched by a strong finish.
If Coach Prime’s Buffs can play clean football, lean on their run game, and find their killer instinct, they have a real shot at pulling off their first upset of the year.
