We’ve entered the stretch run of the college football season.
Conference races are tight coast to coast, but none compare to the logjam we’re witnessing in the Big 12.
With just a month left in the regular season, five Big 12 programs are priced between +190 and 10/1 to win the conference.
For perspective, the Big Ten and ACC have just three serious challengers between even-money and +900, while the SEC features four in that range.
So, where should we be parking our money this November?
Colorado To Win The Big 12 (+350, DraftKings)
Colorado being a “public” team explains why this bet is currently negative EV.
At +350 odds, the implied probability of the Buffaloes winning the Big 12 would be in the 22% neighborhood. College football projections from the Athletic and the Kelly Ford don’t align with oddsmakers. Both ratings project the likelihood of a CU conference title in the 10% to 15% range.
So, why am I snubbing my nose at the -EV? The Buffs’ schedule.
Back in August, it appeared that Colorado was set to face a murderers’ row in November. Utah was coming off back-to-back Rose Bowl appearances. Kansas had just won nine games and finished ranked for the first time in 16 years. And Oklahoma State was coming off a 10-win campaign and returned the reigning Doak Walker Award winner.
How things have changed in two months.
Utah is in free fall, having lost four straight. The Utes’ offense is a tire fire without Cam Rising at the controls, ranking 92nd nationally in quality drives and 123rd in pass success rate.
Kansas has been a shell of its former self without offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki pulling the strings. The Jayhawks were among the most explosive teams last season, racking up 24 plays of 40-plus yards from scrimmage (seventh nationally).
This season, it’s a popgun offense in Lawrence, with their big-play rate slipping to 103rd nationally.
Finally, Oklahoma State has fallen apart. Ollie Gordon II has been held below 51 yards on five occasions after leading the nation in rushing last season. At 3-6, it’s white-flag time in Stillwater.
Betting on College Football?
But this play isn’t predicated solely on the tin cans that await Coach Prime and the Buffs. The Buffaloes have exceeded expectations despite a nonexistent running game and a much-maligned defense.
Offensively, despite being one-dimensional, the Buffs rank in the top 20 nationally in pass success rate and have improved considerably at protecting Shedeur Sanders in the pocket. Colorado ranks 51st in Pro Football Focus’ pass blocking grades this season, and that’s after giving up 4.67 sacks per game last season (132nd nationally). With time to operate, Sanders has taken this offense to new heights in Big 12 play (36.4 ppg, 2nd).
Defensively, Colorado still struggles to corral teams on the ground (155.4 rush yards per game allowed, 79th), but it has steadily improved against the pass. The Buffaloes rank 27th nationally in Pro Football Focus’ coverage grades and recently cracked the top 35 in third-down defense.
With their fundamentals improved year-over-year, the Colorado staff has ratcheted up the pressure. The results speak for themselves, as the Buffaloes rank among the top 35 college football teams in Havoc (34th), sacks (23rd), and pass breakups (7th).
Colorado would likely draw BYU or Iowa State in the Big 12 championship game if it can win out. Current projections indicate that the Buffaloes would be +175 on the moneyline against BYU and +250 against Iowa State on a neutral field.
That’s why I still view their price in the +350 neighborhood as worthy of a future.
So, buy a ticket and hop on the Shedeur and Travis Hunter Express before this number is bet down into the +200 range by early next week.
Why Trust New York Post Betting
Mike Calabrese is a handicapper for the New York Post, with a sharp focus on college sports. His betting advice often centers around situational spots, including travel, rest and altitude disparities.
