California is home to six bellwether U.S. House races that analysts say could help determine which party controls Congress in 2025.
Why it matters: Latinos make up roughly one in four California voters this year — and hold an even larger share in some of the most competitive districts, meaning they’re expected to play a crucial role in the six key races.
- The four main PACs devoted to House races — two Republican and two Democratic — have said they’re planning to spend nearly $73 million on ads in California.
Zoom in: A rematch between U.S. Rep. John Duarte (R) and former Democratic state lawmaker Adam Gray in California’s 13th District in the Central Valley is drawing the most eyeballs since it was decided by just a few hundred votes in 2022.
- Another rematch pits longtime U.S. Rep. Ken Calvert (R) against former federal prosecutor Will Rollins (D) in the 41st District in the state’s Inland Empire.
- The 45th Congressional District in Orange Country has incumbent U.S. Michelle Steel (R) pitted against Democratic challenger Derek Tran in a plurality-Asian American district where Democrats have a registration advantage.
Another closely watched rematch has U.S. Rep. David Valadao (R), a dairy farmer, facing up against Democratic former state lawmaker Rudy Salas in the San Joaquin Valley, the site of some of the most prominent Chicano farmworkers movements.
- In the suburbs north of Los Angeles, incumbent U.S. Rep. Mike Garcia (R) will compete with Democratic challenger George Whitesides, a former chief executive of space tourism company Virgin Galactic, to represent the 27th Congressional District.
- State Sen. Dave Min (D) and Scott Baugh, a former GOP state Assembly leader, are facing off to replace U.S. Rep. Katie Porter (D) in the 47th District, south of Los Angeles.
Between the lines: The races are being closely watched because many of them lean Democratic and are districts President Biden won in 2020, according to an Axios analysis.
- Thomas Holyoke, a political science professor at California State University, Fresno, tells Axios that turnout in the races, especially among Latinos, will be crucial.
Yes, but: Some Democratic-leaning Latino voters, especially in the Central Valley, don’t have strong ties to the Democratic Party, making the races even more unpredictable, Holyoke says.
- “The main reason they have leaned Democratic” is because of the party’s pro-immigrant stance, but now issues in agriculture, such as access to water, are top priority — and many see Republicans as owning that issue, he adds.
What we’re watching: Holyoke says Vice President Kamala Harris, a former California attorney general, could give Democrats in close House races a minimal but decisive jolt after entering the presidential race.
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