Denver Broncos playoff scenarios in final week of 2025 season

 

 

With a 20-13 win over the Kansas City Chiefs on Dec. 25, and the Los Angeles Chargers losing 20-16 to Houston on Dec. 27, the Denver Broncos have won their first AFC West title since 2015.

That title comes with no worse than the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs, as the eventual AFC North champion — Pittsburgh or Baltimore — is locked into the No. 4 seed.

But Denver (13-3) has a lot at stake in Week 18 as it hosts the Chargers at 2:25 p.m. on Jan. 4. Only two teams can pass Denver for the top seed. The Broncos hold a tiebreaker over the New England Patriots (13-3), but not the Jacksonville Jaguars for playoff seeding. That creates scenarios where Denver could end up with any of the top three seeds.

Here’s how the final week will determine the Broncos seed in the AFC playoffs.

How can the Broncos end up the No. 3 seed?

If the Broncos finish as No. 3, they would host a first-round home playoff game but might have to go on the road in the second round.

Denver could wind up with the No. 3 seed if New England ends up with a better record than the Broncos and Jacksonville catches them. There are multiple paths for this to happen:

• The Broncos lose to the Chargers, the Patriots beat or tie the Dolphins, and the Jaguars beat the Titans.
• The Broncos tie the Chargers, the Patriots beat the Dolphins, and the Jaguars beat the Titans.

Either of those paths would make New England the No. 1 seed and Jacksonville No. 2.

How can the Broncos end up the No. 2 seed?

The No. 2 seed would give the Broncos home field advantage in the first two rounds of the playoffs, and they would only go on the road if they reach the AFC title game and the top seed were to advance as well.

Again, the Broncos hold a tiebreaker over New England, but not Jacksonville for seeding. So Denver ends up with the No. 2 seed in any of the following scenarios:

• Broncos lose to the Chargers, the Patriots beat or tie the Dolphins, and the Jaguars lose to or tie the Titans. This would make New England the No. 1 seed, while the No. 3 seed would either be Jacksonville or the Houston Texans, who could still catch the Jaguars for the AFC South crown.
• Broncos tie the Chargers, Patriots lose to or tie the Dolphins, and the Jaguars beat the Titans. This would make Jacksonville the top seed and New England No. 3.

How can the Broncos end up the top seed?

Denver still controls its own destiny to get the AFC’s top seed, which would give the Broncos a first round bye and home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

No matter what happens in other games, if the Broncos beat the Chargers, they get the No. 1 seed. But there are scenarios in which they could still get there without beating Los Angeles. They are:

• Broncos tie the Chargers and the Patriots tie or lose to the Dolphins
• Broncos lose to the Chargers, Patriots lose to the Dolphins and Jaguars lose to or tie the Titans

Nate Trela covers trending news in Colorado and Utah for the USA TODAY Network.