Sunday’s early afternoon slate saw a new NFL MVP favorite emerge and the reigning MVP falter — both within the AFC East.
The New England Patriots extended their winning streak to seven games with a 28-23 victory over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Coming into the contest as 2.5-point underdogs, the Pats improved to 6-1 against the spread since Week 4, the best ATS record in the NFL over that span.
During the game, QB Drake Maye — who threw for 270 yards, two touchdowns and an interception — became MVP favorite for the first time this season, showing +250 odds at ESPN BET. Notably, Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen entered Sunday’s games as the favorite (+185) to repeat for the award, while Maye was a second-place +400.
During New England’s winning streak, Maye has been DraftKings’ most-backed player by bets (20%) and handle (19%) to win MVP.
That was before Buffalo lost outright as an 8.5-point favorite to the Miami Dolphins, tied for the third-largest upset of the NFL season. At Caesars and ESPN BET, the game was the most-bet by handle in the early Sunday afternoon slate, with the latter noting that the Bills were the most-backed money-line and spread selection for the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs. BetMGM told ESPN that Miami pulling the upset “was a good outcome for the sportsbook.”
Allen threw for 306 yards and two touchdowns but also lost an interception and a fumble — enough to not only knock him off the top of the MVP odds board, but send him tumbling all the way down to fifth (+750), per ESPN BET odds.
Sunday’s results had a big impact on the Pats’ and Bills’ future as well. Most directly, New England became the AFC East favorite for the first time since prior to Week 16 of the 2021 season, according to ESPN Research, as they show -225 for the division at ESPN BET. Buffalo fell to +185, with the Dolphins and New York Jets way off in the distance at 500-1.
ESPN BET now has the Bills +900 (sixth) and the Patriots +1800 (tied for 10th) to win the Super Bowl. While New England has received more championship attention from bettors during their winning streak, sportsbooks don’t see it as particularly significant, with BetMGM saying the Pats winning the Super Bowl and/or AFC would be a “good outcome” for the book.
“For AFC East, they are a loser [for the book]; however, when taking into account parlays on the divisions, we remain big fans,” Caesars Sportsbook head of football Joey Feazel told ESPN, noting that the Bills were popular in preseason division winner parlays. “For the AFC, they remain a winner, purely due to the preseason love for the Raiders, Steelers, Broncos and Chiefs.”
Even amid the turmoil within the division, Buffalo is still the most-backed team by handle for the AFC East, and was the most-bet team by money for the Super Bowl before the season, according to BetMGM data.
Meanwhile, at the bottom of the division, the Jets managed to pull off a small upset of their own on Sunday, beating the Cleveland Browns outright as 2.5-point underdogs. New York had opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but the line flipped during the week after the team traded away All-Pro defenders Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams on Tuesday. However, the result had minimal impact at Caesars, which reported it as its least-wagered game of the 2025 NFL season.
Odds & Ends
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Maye wasn’t the only player making MVP progress in Week 10. Los Angeles Rams QB Matthew Stafford commandeered second place in the market after another strong game Sunday, showing +325 at ESPN BET. Earlier in the day in Berlin, Indianapolis Colts RB Jonathan Taylor posted the most PPR fantasy points of the season (49.6), boosting him up to a fourth-place +650 in the MVP market.
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With Sunday’s win over the Atlanta Falcons, the Colts became the first team to go over their preseason win total (7.5) this season.
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The Carolina Panthers were the most-picked team in ESPN Eliminator Challenge (19%), as well as the $1,000 entry Circa Survivor contest (27.7%) before they lost to the New Orleans Saints 17-7. Carolina has now lost 11 consecutive games outright as a favorite, extending the longest such streak in the Super Bowl era. Their 5.5-point favorite role Sunday was their largest over that period, per ESPN Research.
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The Houston Texans were +2500 at their longest live money-line during their divisional game with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday. Houston scored four unanswered touchdowns in the fourth quarter to win the game, the last of which — a fumble recovery score on the final play of the game — allowed them to cover the -2.5 closing spread. “The Texans’ comeback win was one of those classic ‘bad beat’ moments for the book,” said Caesars’ Feazel.
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Feazel notes an uptick in interest on the Baltimore Ravens: “The Ravens are becoming a public darling with Lamar [Jackson] back in form. Their momentum is palpable, and it’s no surprise that they were a big win for customers.”
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After 98 combined “No Picks” in the first eight weeks of the season, there have now been zero missed selections in the past two weeks of the Circa Survivor contest. Going into Sunday, the implied value per entry was $10,581, per Circa.
