After anticipating higher numbers of public-school students “in the next decade,” Maryland is grappling with an estimated decrease this academic year, according to a recent report.
“An unofficial count by the Public School Superintendents’ Association of Maryland has the state’s enrollment for kindergarten through 12th grade down by 4,391 students, a large swing, given the state was projecting an increase of 2,500 students,” writes The Baltimore Banner.
“The association’s preliminary count also shows a loss of 1,819 pre-kindergarten students. The state has about 851,000 public school students this year, according to the association, but even a decline of a few thousand students can have a meaningful effect on budgets.”
‘Significant’ fluctuation in Hispanic attendance
Analysts are highlighting a decline in birth rates, the rise of alternative educational options and “a national crackdown on immigration” as possible factors.
For example, Baltimore schools saw Hispanic student attendance rise by only 23 this year compared to last year’s increase of 1,300, according to The Banner.
“For a school system that has relied on a growing population of Hispanic families in the city to offset its declining Black student enrollment, this year’s fluctuation is significant. The city lost 479 students overall. The decline comes after a gain of students last school year.”
As previously reported by The Lion, illegal border crossings have fallen and deportations have increased under the Trump administration.
Marguerite Roza, Georgetown University professor and director of its Edunomics Lab, also cited lower birth rates nationwide as something for school administrators to consider in enrollment projections.
Such a trend can “seriously remake education in this country,” she told journalists, adding that enrollment “is dropping like a rock because people aren’t having kids at the same rate,“ and warning the decline would force schools to cut staff and administrative expenses.
“There is no chance that the enrollment growth they are talking about would have continued.”
‘There has to be a breaking point’
Finally, the last factor involves what the superintendents call in a letter to Gov. Wes Moore “the loss to homeschooling and private schools.”
“Because they believe enrollment is likely to rise again, they asked the governor to ‘hold harmless’ district funding for a year while they wait for the enrollment to bounce back,” The Banner wrote.
Other districts using a “hold harmless” policy include New York City, where taxpayers pay more than $36,000 per student despite poor academic outcomes and chronic absenteeism.
“When you choose to hold schools harmless, especially when decreases in enrollment vary so dramatically, you create more inequity,” said Ana Champeny of the Citizens Budget Commission group.
“The challenge is how to use the dollars more effectively and make sure that we’re actually getting good outcomes for our kids.”
The declining enrollment comes at a time of a record $14.3 billion in 2025 funding for Maryland districts.
Meanwhile, analysts such as Taxpayers Protection Alliance president David Williams cite “shameful” underperformance in math proficiency: Overall, 46 of the state’s schools had two or fewer students testing proficient.
“There has to be a breaking point,” he said. “When is Annapolis going to say enough is enough, and just spending more money is not making our kids any smarter?”
