No matter how much we think we know about how a college football season will play out, not everything can be predicted. Indiana just won a national championship, after all.
We may have a pretty good idea of the top College Football Playoff contenders for the 2026 season, but some surprises will inevitably emerge. So, after the preseason coaches poll was released on Tuesday, we asked some of The Athletic’s writers and editors to predict who from outside the Top 25 (and top Group of 6 vote-getter Boise State) could make unexpected noise in the Playoff race. Here are eight unranked teams to keep an eye on:
TCU
You think the Hypnotoad has been completely drained of its otherworldly powers? Think again.
TCU can absolutely win a weak Big 12 in 2026, and therefore supplant its Lone Star State peer, Texas Tech, as the Big 12’s CFP representative. We mustn’t forget that the Horned Frogs made an improbable run to the CFP title game in 2023 (although the score of that game remains painful to even Google years later).
Sonny Dykes has a track record with quarterbacks bursting onto the national stage as the focal point of his Air Raid attack. Josh Hoover is off to try to help Indiana repeat as national champs. In is Harvard transfer Jaden Craig, who was one of the most sought-after QBs in the transfer portal and will get to showcase his talents at the P4 level.
TCU gets both BYU and Utah at home, although a regular-season finale at Texas Tech on Thanksgiving could shape up to be a conference-altering tilt. — Chris Kamrani
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UNLV
Dan Mullen has historically gotten the most out of his quarterbacks, so I’m expecting him to maximize Auburn/Oklahoma transfer Jackson Arnold. Add in running back Jai’Den Thomas (1,036 yards last season), and the Rebels’ offense should be one of the best in the Group of 6.
UNLV’s schedule also sets up fairly well for a Playoff run. The Rebels get the new coaching staffs at Memphis and North Texas in the first three weeks, have a beatable Power 4 opponent (Cal) in October and get one of the Mountain West’s top teams, North Dakota State, at home. The fact that the conference is watered down after Boise State et al. left for the revamped Pac-12 helps, too.
Put those factors together, and I like UNLV’s odds to be the CFP’s G6 representative. — Matt Baker
South Carolina
Last year’s 4-8 record was a nightmare. It featured one SEC win and five losses in which the Gamecocks scored 14 or fewer points.
LaNorris Sellers was running for his life behind an offensive line that struggled in an offense that fell from 47th to 104th in scoring. Enter new OC Kendal Briles, new offensive line coach Randy Clements and an overhauled offensive line. There should be improvement around Sellers, with a deep, talented, speedy, experienced receiving corps that added Purdue transfer Nitro Tuggle.
Defensively, Dylan Stewart headlines a unit with a strong line and a secondary full of experience. The schedule is tough, but this team is loaded with potential. The 31-30 road loss to Texas A&M was the low point of last season, but a 30-3 halftime lead over the Aggies did show what this team is capable of doing. More of the latter could mean a Playoff bid in 2026, especially if the SEC’s incessant offseason complaining pushes the committee to grant the league an extra at-large bid. — David Ubben
Minnesota
The Gophers won every home game last season to finish 8-5, and coach P.J. Fleck might have his best roster since an 11-2 finish in 2019.
Minnesota has a primary returnee at every important position. Quarterback Drake Lindsey, who started every game in his second season, has several NFL Draft analysts considering him a potential first-round prospect. The offense has playmakers at every position and three returning starters up front. Defensive end Anthony Smith led the Big Ten in sacks (12.5) and anchors a veteran defense.
The schedule is challenging, but not overwhelming. The Gophers face all four trophy rivals (Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, Penn State), which will determine whether they are a dark-horse contender or merely a bowl team. But with returnees at all the right spots and a coach who is 7-0 in bowls since heading to Minneapolis in 2017, the Gophers could make some noise. — Scott Dochterman
Louisville
This is the year the Cards get over the CFP hump. Louisville has been right on the cusp under Jeff Brohm, winning at least nine games each of the past three seasons. There have been some highlight wins along the way, including over Notre Dame in 2023 and at Miami last year, but always a bad loss or two that tripped them up. Avoiding that fate is the key, especially with an advantageous schedule: Ole Miss in Nashville to open the season; SMU, Florida State and Pitt at home in ACC play; and no Miami or Clemson.
Brohm tends to have a solid offense, and he should have one of the best backfields in the country between Isaac Brown and Keyjuan Brown (no relation) at running back. The key will be getting the most out of Ohio State transfer quarterback Lincoln Kienholz. If he plays to his potential, the Cardinals have an inviting path to the Playoff out of an underwhelming ACC. — Justin Williams
Florida
I’ll join Bruce Feldman in buying what Jon Sumrall is selling. The Gators have been stuck in the mud, with losing records in four of the past five seasons. But Sumrall is 43-12 in four years as a head coach and took Tulane to the Playoff last year. The hire of Buster Faulkner from Georgia Tech as offensive coordinator is intriguing, and the winner of the QB battle between GT transfer Aaron Philo and Tramell Jones will have a stellar supporting cast led by 1,170-yard rusher Jadan Baugh and rising star receivers Dallas Wilson, Vernell Brown and Eric Singleton.
The schedule is tough, but someone will surprise from the SEC’s crowded middle class. Give me the Gators pulling off wins against two of Ole Miss, Georgia and Oklahoma to get to 10-2 and the CFP. — Matt Brown
Cal
The great unknown weighing down the Golden Bears is what kind of head coach Tosh Lupoi will be. Nine seasons on the staffs of Nick Saban and Dan Lanning can only prepare you so much for life in the big chair. But Lupoi’s portal strategy of pulling fistfuls of Power 4 reserves to go along with a couple of Group of 6 stars at skill positions is an intriguing recipe for Year 1.
And then, of course, there is the quarterback. If Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele is on his way to being the first passer drafted in 2028, the script would dictate he follows up an electric if inconsistent freshman season with a dark-horse ACC title run. Did I mention the Bears don’t play Miami? — Eric Single
Oklahoma State
It’s shocking that the Cowboys haven’t won a Big 12 game over the past two years, but the fix has come by importing almost everything from North Texas, which was one win away from the CFP last season. That influx includes head coach Eric Morris, defensive coordinator Skyler Cassity and much of last year’s No. 1 offense (in yards and points). Among the Mean Green transfers: quarterback Drew Mestemaker (the nation’s leading passer), running back Caleb Hawkins (29 touchdowns as a freshman) and receiver Wyatt Young (1,264 yards).
I would be shocked if this Oklahoma State team could not find its way to a bowl game, and a better-than-expected transition with so many key faces familiar with each other makes for a high ceiling. The Cowboys have Oregon and Texas Tech at home and avoid BYU and Utah. There’s a lot to like. — Chris Vannini
