Elon Musk’s new political party could split the right-wing vote but is unlikely to succeed in any major way, experts have told Newsweek.
While Musk cannot run for president because he was born in South Africa, the party has the potential to shake-up politics ahead of the midterms, though it is doubtful it will break through in its own right.
Experts doubted Musk could organize a fully fledged political party in time to fight the midterms in a meaningful way, but conceded that he could certainly create enough disruption to cause a few upsets and allow the democrats to make significant gains.
Why It Matters
On Saturday, Musk announced he was forming a new political party called the “America Party.”
It came after Musk—who supported Trump during the 2024 presidential election campaign and who the president put in charge of the agency Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) —fell out with Trump over “The One Big Beautiful Bill.”
Francis Chung/POLITICO via AP Images
Musk posted a poll on July 4, asking respondents if they wanted a new party, with 65.4 percent saying that they backed the idea.
On X, formerly Twitter, he wrote: “Today, the America Party is formed to give you back your freedom,” citing the poll.
What To Know
As a foreign-born U.S. citizen, Musk cannot run for president but he can support third-party candidates, who can put themselves on the ballot in every state, if they have enough signatures to support their bid. It is rare for third-party candidates to break through significantly.
Experts told Newsweek that it is possible that Musk’s party could split the right-wing vote. If this happens, Democrats may be able to pick up seats in the Senate and the House. Given the Republican majorities in these institutions are so slight, this could affect the balance of the House.
They also noted that to be successful, the party would need to be well-organized and well financed, or it will flounder.
What People Are Saying
Speaking to Newsweek, Carl Tobias, Williams chair in law at the University of Richmond said: “Musk provides few specifics regarding his vision for creating a new viable third party, which has rarely succeeded in the country’s 250-year history. However, Musk’s attempt to establish another political party appears likely to bring even greater uncertainty into the already unclear Senate and House midterm elections. For instance, Democrats must only win a small number of posts in the Senate and the House to capture razor-thin majorities in each house. Musk, whose mantra is to ‘move rapidly and break things,’ could well do exactly that in the 2026 midterm elections.”
Scott Lucas, a professor in international politics at University College Dublin, told Newsweek that the success of the party “depends on whether Elon has the bandwidth in terms of time, resources and attention span to do what is necessary to establish a political party.”
“It’s one thing to tweet about it,” he continued, “it’s far different to organize it.”
He added that Musk would need to recruit candidates and staff as well as volunteers across the United States to get the movement off the ground and that there is not much time to do that before the November 2026 midterms.
He also said that while Musk is well-financed, if he is the only person financing the venture then “it doesn’t really look like a party as much as an ego project.”
“This can’t just simply be a one-man show firing off tweets and just poking at Trump,” he said.
Dafydd Townley, an American politics expert at the University of Portsmouth, previously told Newsweek that “third parties do not tend to have a long lifetime in American politics,” adding that Musk’s new party “would likely split the Republican vote, potentially resulting in a Democrat-dominated House of Representatives, at least in the short term, due to the winner-takes-all electoral system.”
What Happens Next
The impact Musk’s party will have on a federal level remains to be seen as further details about it emerge. It is not known how the party will be structured and what other figures will be involved in it though some political figures have appeared to express interest in the venture.
