Denver Public Schools is predicting its enrollment will decrease by an additional 6,000 students by 2029.
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By Melanie Asmar, Chalkbeat
Enrollment in Denver Public Schools dropped by about 1,200 students this year as the arrival of new immigrant students slowed, district officials told the school board Thursday night.
For the first time in three years, more immigrant students left the city’s schools than entered this summer and fall, district data shows. That outmigration is a sharp reversal and compounds the longstanding problems of falling birth rates and gentrification that have caused DPS enrollment to decline from a high point in 2019.
The district is predicting its enrollment will continue to decrease by an additional 8%, or more than 6,000 students, by 2029. The pattern sets the stage for some difficult decisions in the years ahead.
“This trend means more school closures will be needed,” a board presentation bluntly states.
But Superintendent Alex Marrero told the board Thursday that he does not plan to activate the policy for closing underenrolled schools, called Executive Limitation 18, this year.
“However, I believe that we would be negligent if we do nothing, considering the stark realities,” he said, referring to the enrollment drops.
Marrero said he may enact what he called “operational shifts” if some schools are facing difficult enrollment situations. That could look like cutting a grade level from a school if, for instance, only a single kindergartener or ninth grader is enrolled, he said.
School closures are controversial and often spark fierce pushback from the community. DPS has closed or partially closed 13 district-run schools for low enrollment in the past few years. Fifteen charter schools have closed in recent years for the same reason.
Earlier this year, the school board enacted a four-year moratorium on enrollment-based school closures. But the moratorium includes a caveat that allows the board to consider closures “if there is a substantial shift in student enrollment, funding levels, or an unexpected emergency.”
Board member Kimberlee Sia asked whether this year’s enrollment loss meets that bar. DPS was expecting to lose 500 students but lost 1,200 instead, a 700-student difference, officials said.
“To me, that’s a pretty significant number and particularly if we continue on that trend,” Sia said.
Board member DJ Torres requested that the superintendent define the terms in the caveat before recommending closures or cutting grade levels from schools. Marrero said he would “respectfully ask the board to consider defining [the terms] itself.”
“It’s very difficult to define that tipping point,” Marrero said. “But I would welcome that because then it takes the guessing game out for us.”
With the moratorium in place, district officials said they are looking at addressing declining enrollment through another policy the board passed earlier this year. Called Executive Limitation 19, it requires the district to adjust school boundaries every five years.
Any boundary changes would likely go into effect in the 2027-28 school year, Marrero said, though the district hopes to start internal planning and hold community meetings before then. What those boundary adjustments would look like is unclear.
But district officials said any boundary changes could also help balance class sizes, a priority of the Denver teachers union that was frequently mentioned during this fall’s school board election. While much of the push has focused on addressing overcrowded classrooms, Marrero said the district more often sees classrooms on the other end of the spectrum.
Andrew Huber, the district’s executive director of enrollment and campus planning, told the board that 109 elementary school classrooms, or 8%, have 30 or more students this year. About 21% of elementary classrooms, or 303, have 19 students or fewer. Those numbers are for district-run schools only.
Marrero also recently enacted a policy that allows schools to be closed for persistently low student test scores. That policy, called the School Transformation Process, went into effect this year, but the soonest schools could be closed for low scores would be spring 2027.
While that policy is separate from the district’s efforts to address declining enrollment, Marrero said “it is interwoven in what could happen in the landscape of Denver Public Schools.”
Correction, Dec. 18: Chalkbeat has been updated this story to reflect that 303 elementary classrooms in district-run schools, not 345, have 19 or fewer students this year. The previous number, which was provided at the board meeting, was inclusive of charter schools.
Melanie Asmar is the bureau chief for Chalkbeat Colorado. Contact Melanie at [email protected].
