Every team’s chances at 2025 No. 1 pick

Patrick Ewing was the prize 40 years ago at the first NBA draft lottery, and another one appears to have emerged ahead of an anniversary of when the league instituted this annual process to curtail tanking and determine the draft order.

The 2025 NBA draft lottery is scheduled to be held Monday, May 12, in Chicago before conference semifinal action resumes on ESPN, and Duke one-and-done star Cooper Flagg is perceived to be the player every team covets with this year’s No. 1 selection. The Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards and Charlotte Hornets have the best chance of getting the 2025 No. 1 pick by virtue of finishing with the three worst records in the league during the 2024-25 regular season.

All 14 teams that didn’t make the playoffs technically have a shot, however small, at the right combination of ping pong balls coming up and getting the top pick. But the Houston Rockets have possession of the Phoenix Suns’ first-round pick, and the Philadelphia 76ers and Sacramento Kings could convey their first-round picks to the Oklahoma City Thunder and Atlanta Hawks, respectively, if the lottery goes a certain way. The San Antonio Spurs, meanwhile, have two picks in this year’s lottery ‒ their own and the Hawks’ first-round pick via the Dejounte Murray trade in 2022.

There’s a whole lot at stake when the draft lottery officially takes place Monday night. Here’s a breakdown of every NBA lottery team’s odds to get the No. 1 pick, as well as each team’s chances of landing a top-four pick in the draft order and how the draft lottery process works:

NBA PLAYOFFS: Ranking every remaining team by odds to win championship

When does the NBA draft lottery start?

The 2025 NBA draft lottery will be held on Monday, May 12, in Chicago and will be broadcast beginning at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

NBA draft lottery 2025: Format and selection process

The NBA draft lottery determines the order of selection for the 2025 NBA draft in June. Drawings are conducted to determine the first four picks in the NBA Draft using 14 ping pong balls numbered 1 through 14 in a lottery machine. The remainder of the lottery teams select in positions five through 14 based on 2024-25 regular-season records, in descending order.

There are 1,001 possible combinations when four balls are drawn out of 14, according to the NBA, and 1,000 of those combinations are assigned to the 14 NBA lottery teams. Beginning with the 2019 draft lottery, the NBA system was adjusted to ensure the team with the worst record receives no worse than the No. 5 pick. The league also leveled the odds for the teams with the three worst regular-season records. They each have a 14% chance of winning the lottery.

Watch the NBA draft lottery with Fubo

NBA draft lottery odds: Who has best chance at 2025 No. 1 pick?

No. 1 pick odds according to the NBA after applying draft lottery rules and tiebreaking procedures. Top-four pick odds, according to Tankathon.

1. Utah Jazz (17-65)

• No. 1 pick odds: 14%
• Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

2. Washington Wizards (18-64)

• No. 1 pick odds: 14%
• Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

3. Charlotte Hornets (19-63)

• No. 1 pick odds: 14%
• Top-four pick odds: 52.1%

4. New Orleans Pelicans (21-61)

• No. 1 pick odds: 12.5%
• Top-four pick odds: 48.1%

5. Philadelphia 76ers (24-58)

Note: Philadelphia would convey its 2025 first-round pick to the Oklahoma City Thunder if the selection falls outside the top six in the draft order.

• No. 1 pick odds: 10.5%
• Top-four pick odds: 42.1%

6. Brooklyn Nets (26-56)

• No. 1 pick odds: 9%
• Top-four pick odds: 37.2%

7. Toronto Raptors (30-52)

• No. 1 pick odds: 7.5%
• Top-four pick odds: 31.9%

8. San Antonio Spurs (34-48)

• No. 1 pick odds: 6%
• Top-four pick odds: 26.2%

9. Houston Rockets (52-30)

Note: Houston acquired the Phoenix Suns‘ 2025 first-round pick with no protections via a pick swap with Brooklyn.

• No. 1 pick odds: 3.8%
• Top-four pick odds: 17.3%

10. Portland Trail Blazers (36-46)

• No. 1 pick odds: 3.7%
• Top-four pick odds: 16.9%

11. Dallas Mavericks (39-43)

• No. 1 pick odds: 1.8%
• Top-four pick odds: 8.5%

12. Chicago Bulls (39-43)

• No. 1 pick odds: 1.7%
• Top-four pick odds: 8.1%

13. Sacramento Kings (40-42)

Note: Sacramento would convey its 2025 first-round pick to the Atlanta Hawks if the selection falls outside the top-12 in the draft order.

• No. 1 pick odds: 0.8%
• Top-four pick odds: 3.8%

14. San Antonio Spurs (40-42)

Note: San Antonio acquired the Atlanta Hawks’ 2025 first-round pick with no protections in the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade.

• No. 1 pick odds: 0.7%
• Top-four pick odds: 3.4%