With 155 home runs in 543 career games with the Phillies, Kyle Schwarber has effectively averaged a HR once every 3.5 games during his time in Philadelphia. He’s had 18 multi-homer games during that span, and he’s tended to hit his home runs in bunches throughout his 11 years in the big leagues, so finding value betting Schwarber to hit a home run can be a challenge. However, on occasion, with the right matchup, weather conditions, and favorable pricing, it makes sense to add the slugger to your MLB HR picks.
Schwarber has evolved to hammer left-handed pitching over the years, so a matchup with a lefty on Wednesday and a +285 listing in the MLB home run odds from FanDuel, where new users can take advantage of the latest FanDuel promo code, is why we’re making him a focal point of our MLB HR parlay today. Schwarber has hit 24 home runs this season and is +2000 to hit 2+ homers on Wednesday. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It nailed Ronald Acuna (+350) and Ketel Marte (+380) to homer on Monday and it’s up 22.65 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 78 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Wednesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.
Best MLB home run picks for Wednesday, June 25:
- Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+285)
- Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+375)
- Brandon Lowe, Rays (+450)
- Parlay these picks for +9697 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)
Ronald Acuna Jr., Braves (+375)
Acuna looks like he was launched out of a cannon after returning from a torn ACL late last month. Despite hitting a career-high 60.8% of batted balls back through the middle, his 7.4% home run rate is the best of his career. He’s backing that number up with a 93.9 mph average exit velocity and 58.1% hard-hit contact rate.
“Despite going 0-for-3 yesterday, Acuna is still batting .385 on the season with nine HRs in just 29 games played. Against RHPs, Acuna is hitting .430 with eight homers,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +330 for Acuna to homer today.” With that level of value added, this was a hot-hand play and we’ll happily take this price from BetMGM, where you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code.
Kyle Schwarber, Phillies (+285)
He’s third in the National League with 24 home runs this season, and his success over a limited sample at Minute Maid Park is hard to ignore. In eight career games in Houston, Schwarber has launched five homers, and he has a 1.212 OPS there. When he gets into +275 range or better with a good matchup, it’s well within the go-range for playing Schwarber.
“Astros SP Colton Gordon has had a solid start to his rookie season, but he has allowed four home runs over his last two starts,” Fetner said. “Despite being a lefty, Schwarber has been better against left-handed pitchers this season. Schwarber has a .670 SLG vs. lefties compared to a .463 SLG against righties.” The model sets Schwarber’s MLB HR line at +224 and we’re getting +275 from BetMGM in our MLB home run parlay, while FanDuel is offering the best price overall.
Brandon Lowe, Rays (+450)
You could choose to be concerned by Lowe’s career-low 6.6% walk rate, but his strikeout rate (24.1%) is also a career low and his average exit velocity (92.1 mph) is a career-high. That paints a picture of a hitter who is making a concerted effort to be more aggressive, and it’s largely paying off, as his 15 home runs over 73 games puts him on pace for his first 30-homer season since hitting 39 dingers in 2021.
“Lowe has been swinging a strong bat since the start of May. Lowe hit .281 in May and has a .312 batting average so far in June. Lowe is also usually worth a play according to our model when he is facing RHPs, against whom he is hitting .294 with 13 of his 15 home runs,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +420 for Lowe to stay hot and homer.” It’s BetMGM offering the best price for this MLB HR prop.
Where to bet MLB props on Wednesday
Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Wednesday:
More MLB picks for Wednesday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Wednesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Angelo Magliocca, who is on an 11-4 roll (+614) on MLB picks. SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall is also 22-15-1 (+931) over his last 38 MLB picks, and he already has locked in a pick for Wednesday.
