SAN ANTONIO — Fresh bakery department sales improved in January and contrasted a sizable decrease in the center-store bakery category that pulled down overall bakery sales for the month, according to 210 Analytics.
For the five calendar weeks in January, perimeter bakery sales (including fixed- and random-weight products) rose 0.8% year over year to $1.9 billion, as unit volume inched up 0.4%, the San Antonio-based food market research firm reported, citing US multi-outlet data from Circana. That represented a rebound from December, when fresh bakery dollars sales dipped 0.3% and unit sales edged up 0.1%.
The aisle bakery segment saw sales drop by 2% in dollars to $2.5 billion and by 2.6% in units in January, a marked downturn from decreases of 0.9% in dollars and 1.1% in units in December. As a result, total bakery sales fell 0.8% in dollars to $4.4 billion and were down 1.5% in units for the month, compared with 0.6% declines in dollars and units for December.
Overall bakery sales for the 52 weeks through January were flat, up 0.3% in dollars to $48.5 billion on a 0.1% dip in unit volume. Fresh bakery sales for the period rose 1.3% in units and were up 1.2% in dollars to $21.4 billion, while center-store bakery sales fell 0.9% in units and 0.5% in dollars to $27.1 billion.
“In January, both dollars and unit sales were a little soft, with a year-over-year decrease of 1.5% in units,” 210 Analytics president Anne-Marie Roerink said of the total bakery performance. “The 52-week sales were stronger, with a slight gain in dollars and flat unit sales.”
Croissants, bread shine in fresh bakery
In perimeter bakery, 7 of the 13 tracked segments grew dollar sales in January, led by croissants up 14% year over year to $98 million. Other gainers included buns and rolls up 3.7% to $121 million, cookies up 3.4% to $265 million, muffins up 1.5% to $145 million, cakes up 1.4% to $518 million, bread up 1.4% to $177 million, and bagels and bialys up 1% to $46 million, 210 Analytics said.
Specialty desserts, though a small segment, had the largest percentage dollar-sales decrease in fresh bakery, down 21% to $9.5 million for January. Also seeing dollar sales decreases for the month were brownies and bars (down 7.3% to $35 million), pies (down 5.1% to $81 million), tortillas and wraps (down 4.8% to $38 million), donuts (down 4.6% to $164 million) and pastries and danish (down 3% to $180 million).
By unit volume in perimeter bakery, bread was one of January’s winners with a 7.9% increase, behind only the 13.9% unit sales growth in croissants. Overall, 6 of the 13 fresh bakery categories generated unit gains. Besides croissants and bread, those segments included muffins (up 3.1%), cakes (up 2.2%), cookies (up 1.6%), and buns and rolls (up 1.5%).
A 16% plunge in specialty desserts led unit volume decreases for the month in perimeter bakery. Other decliners in units were pies (down 8.6%), tortillas and wraps (down 8%), brownies and bars (down 7.3%), donuts (down 6.6%), pastries and danish (down 3.4%), and bagels and bialys (down 1.3%).
“Perimeter bakery results were stronger,” Roerink said. “Cakes were the biggest seller in January, generating $518 million, with growth in both dollars and units. Cookies, the No. 2 seller, also had a strong January. While center-store bread sales were down year on year, perimeter bread sales increased by nearly 8%. Other areas that gained in January included muffins, buns and rolls, and croissants.”
Cakes, snack cakes lead declines in aisle bakery
Only 4 of the 14 tracked center-store bakery segments tallied dollar sales growth in January, while just 5 categories saw unit sales increase, according to 210 Analytics.
For cakes, dollar sales sank 11% year over year to $39 million during the month, with unit volume falling 9.6%. Likewise, snack cake sales dropped 10% in units and were down 9.8% in dollars to $144 million.
Center-store bakery dollar sales in January rose for croissants (up 6.3% to $14 million), pies (up 1.6% to $26 million), pastries and danish (up 1.3% to $70 million), and buns and rolls (up 1.4% to $473 million) but fell for wraps and flatbread (down 7.9% to $27 million), brownies and bars (down 4.8% to $48 million), cookies (down 4.3% to $87 million), donuts (down 4.1% to $104 million), English muffins (down 4% to $93 million), bagels and bialys (down 1.7% to $166 million), bread (down 1.6% to $1.2 billion) and muffins (down 1.5% to $99 million).
Gainers in unit sales for the month were croissants (up 6.3%), pies (up 2%), pastries and danish (up 1%), buns and rolls (up 0.7%), and bagels and bialys (up 0.1%). Aside from cakes and snack cakes, the fresh bakery unit volume decliners were wraps and flatbread (down 8.5%), brownies and bars (down 7.6%), cookies (down 5%), donuts (down 4.6%), English muffins (down 4.6%), bread (down 2.6%) and muffins (down 1.5%).
“Center-store bakery sales had a soft January, with year-on-year declines for bread, desserts and morning bakery,” Roerink said. “In the 52-week view, morning bakery did gain in units, and bread was nearly even with the prior-year levels.”
Among like segments in January, desserts/sweet goods sales were down 6.8% in units and 7.1% in dollars to $344 million, and morning bakery sales were down 2.2% in units and 1.8% in dollars to $274 million. Bread and buns/rolls dollar sales decreased 1.1% to $1.9 billion on a 1.7% decline in unit volume.
“Within aisle bakery, performances ranged widely from a double-digit decline in unit sales for snack cakes to gains for buns and rolls, pastries, pies and croissants,” Roerink said. “Croissants have had a strong year, with unit sales up nearly 19% in the 52-week view.”
Bakery pricing edges up
Overall bakery prices have continued to stabilize in recent months but in January were up slightly versus a year ago, 210 Analytics reported, based on the Circana multi-outlet data.
Total bakery price per unit came in at $3.78 for January, up 0.7% year over year and marking a 19% increase versus three years ago. For the 52 weeks through January, the price per unit was $3.82, up 0.4% from the prior-year period and an increase of 23% from three years earlier.
“In January 2025, the price per unit across all foods and beverages in the Circana multi-outlet universe stood at $4.24; this reflects an increase of 2.8% over January 2024,” Roerink said. “Fresh food prices averaged $4.30, which was an increase of 4.3% over January 2024. The upswing in January prices was influenced by substantial inflation in eggs. Egg prices have broken past previous records due to HPAI’s (highly pathogenic avian influenza) ongoing impact on egg layers. Center-store prices averaged $3.94, an increase of 1.8% over January 2024.”
Consumers continue to hold a negative view of grocery pricing, Roerink said, pointing to Circana research.
“The January Circana primary shopper survey shows that the consumer price perceptions of grocery-type items remain unchanged, with 84% believing prices continued to rise, which has an ongoing 96% of consumers worried about prices,” she explained. “In response, 55% of consumers look for sales promotions frequently, and 44% refrain from buying non-essential items. Consumers also continued to move dollars and trips to value-focused retailers over full-service supermarkets. This has led to substantial dollar distribution shifts over the past few years.
“Lower-income consumers are the most likely to be concerned and implement a host of changes to their food buying behaviors, including eating at restaurants less often.”
