The Gonzaga Bulldogs saw their 15-game winning streak snapped in a shocking fashion on Wednesday, falling on the road to the Portland Pilots, 87-80, for the first time since 2014.
Gonzaga (22-2, 10-1) had not lost since Nov. 26 when Michigan crushed them in the Players Era Championship, a two-month span that set the Zags up comfortably as a projected top 3 seed in the NCAA Tournament.
However, a quad three loss to a Portland team that sat No. 230 in the NET on Wednesday is a massive blow to Gonzaga’s chances of earning a top seed, and could push them out of a favorable geographical draw in Portland.
The Moda Center in Portland is hosting pods that feature the No. 2 seed in the west region and the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in the south region. Gonzaga’s best chance at playing close to home is to earn that No. 2 seed, but that dream is on life support following this loss. It’s of course possible the Zags get the four or five seed in the south region, but the committee is more likely to give them a favorable location if they are a top two seed.
Gonzaga fell from No. 5 to No. 9 in the NET after Wednesday’s loss. The NET is one of the biggest factors used to determine seeding by the selection committee, and a quad 3 loss will be a stain on GU’s resume that they will struggle to recover from – especially with only two Quad 1 matchups left on the schedule, at Santa Clara on Feb. 14 and at Saint Mary’s Feb. 28.
Those two games are now far more critical for Gonzaga. Before this loss, the Zags would have still been in a strong position had they split those games, and even if they lost both, it’s likely they would have ended up in the three or four seed range.
However, this loss probably costs Gonzaga one full seed line and makes any additional losses even more significant. The committee will factor in the absence of Braden Huff – Gonzaga’s second leading scorer – especially if he is back and healthy by the end of the year, but that won’t be a major needle mover either way.
Fortunately, Gonzaga is still in a strong position in other key metrics used by the committee, including KenPom and WAB (wins above bubble).
The Zags fell from No. 11 to No. 14 at KenPom, which theoretically puts them in the 3-4 seed range. The site is far from the be-all-end-all for NCAA Tournament seeding, however, something Zag fans are quite familiar with after a team that was ranked ninth at KenPom drew a No. 8 seed last year.
Wins above bubble have carried quite a bit of weight with the committee lately, and the Zags are in a good spot at No. 11 in the country – again putting them around a No. 3 seed in theory.
Gonzaga’s margin for error this season shrank considerably following Wednesday’s loss, but they still hold all the cards in terms of earning a top 4 seed.
Should they pick up road wins over Santa Clara and Saint Mary’s, and win the WCC Tournament, they will be squarely in the No. 3 seed conversation and unlikely to fall further than No. 4. A No. 2 seed is probably out of the equation, barring multiple collapses by other top teams around the country, but the Zags can still earn a top four or at least top five seed – as long as they don’t take any more historically unprecedented losses this year.
That includes Saturday’s game, when Gonzaga will head to Corvallis to face Oregon State at 3:00 PM. The game will be broadcast on ESPN+.
