With the college basketball season now 1/3 of the way done (I know, it sounds wild to say out loud) and the Hawkeyes coming into full Ben McCollum form, it’s time to start doing a little daydreaming about what could be with this team. It’s been two years without an NCAA Tournament appearance for the Hawkeyes and new head coach Ben McCollum is looking to change that in his first season.
So far, things seem to be realistically on track. Iowa has two non-conference matchups remaining and currently sits at 9-2 on the season. Barring something completely shocking, the Hawkeyes will enter the heart of Big Ten play at 11-2 and 10-1 in the non-con.
More important than the overall record is the quality of it. Iowa doesn’t have a signature Q1 win yet, but they have just two losses to teams ranked #4 and #9 nationally. And they do have solid wins over Xavier, Grand Canyon, Ole Miss, Robert Morris and Maryland.
The analytics? They love the Hawks. Entering this final stretch of non-conference play, Iowa comes in at #19 in the all-important NET rankings. They’re up to #20 in KenPom and Torvik and #21 in RPI. Those are all winning numbers in terms of making the dance.
NET: 19
KenPom: 20
Torvik: 20
RPI: 21
Quad 1 Record: 0-2
Quad 2 Record: 1-0
Quad 3 Record: 2-0
Quad 4 Record: 6-0
Beyond the existing metrics, the rest of the season lines up well for a push for the tourney. Given the strength of the Big Ten, there are very few landmines to avoid and loads of opportunity for quality wins. All told, Iowa has just three more matchups with teams currently in the NCAA’s 4th quad and one in quad three. On the flip side, the Hawkeyes have nine remaining opportunities against Q1 opponents and seven against Q2 opponents.
And the analytics expect Iowa to pick up some wins with those opportunities. The predictive analytics at WarrenNolan expect the Hawkeyes to finish the year at 21-10 overall and 11-9 in Big Ten play. That includes a pair of Q1 wins (Illinois and Nebraska), four Q2 wins and most importantly, no bad losses.
BartTorvik is a bit more optimistic in the predictive analytics, calling for Iowa to go 22-9 overall and 12-8 in Big Ten play. The difference here is a late-season Q1 road win at Wisconsin.
Here’s a look at Iowa’s full remaining schedule:
| Date | Opponent | Location | NET | Quad |
| 12/20 | Bucknell | Neutral | 308 | 4 |
| 12/29 | UMass-Lowell | Home | 317 | 4 |
| 1/3 | UCLA | Home | 42 | 2 |
| 1/6 | Minnesota | Away | 122 | 2 |
| 1/11 | Illinois | Home | 13 | 1 |
| 1/14 | Purdue | Away | 9 | 1 |
| 1/17 | Indiana | Away | 26 | 1 |
| 1/20 | Rutgers | Home | 196 | 4 |
| 1/28 | USC | Home | 37 | 2 |
| 2/1 | Oregon | Away | 127 | 2 |
| 2/4 | Washington | Away | 61 | 1 |
| 2/8 | Northwestern | Home | 74 | 2 |
| 2/11 | Maryland | Away | 161 | 3 |
| 2/14 | Purdue | Home | 9 | 1 |
| 2/17 | Nebraska | Home | 12 | 1 |
| 2/22 | Wisconsin | Away | 69 | 1 |
| 2/25 | Ohio State | Home | 49 | 2 |
| 2/28 | Penn State | Away | 104 | 2 |
| 3/5 | Michigan | Home | 1 | 1 |
| 3/8 | Nebraska | Away | 12 | 1 |
As we get into the new year, we’ll start to dive in on rooting interests with our weekly watch guides. For now, those teams Iowa has already beaten that are right on the cusps of moving a quad are the ones we are rooting for.
In terms of rooting against, we’ll again dive into more detail on the bubble when it becomes a little more firm (say, close to the halfway point in the year), but for now Iowa is being projected as a 7 seed by Joe Lunardi at ESPN. Teams in the vicinity to root against include St. John’s, Auburn, Tennessee, Virginia, USC, Georgia and St. Mary’s.
The Hawkeyes are back in action on Saturday with a Q4 neutral site game against Bucknell from Des Moines. Tip time is set for 5pm CT with the game set to be broadcast on BTN.
