Topline
The swing state race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is effectively tied, with the final pre-election New York Times survey showing Harris ahead in four of the seven states, Trump up in one and a tie in two others—though polling averages show no candidate leads by more than 2.5 points in any of the seven battlegrounds.
Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally at Madison Square Garden on Sunday.
Key Facts
Pennsylvania: It couldn’t get any closer—the candidates are tied at 48% in both a New York Times/Siena survey (margin of error 3.5 points) and a Morning Consult poll, along with three other ties last week, while Harris is ahead 50%-48% in a Marist poll and 48%-47% in a Washington Post poll, and she’s ahead 49%-48% in a large Cooperative Election Study survey, though Trump is up 47%-46% in a Wednesday Quinnipiac poll. Trump leads Harris by 0.2 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Georgia: Harris is ahead 48%-47% in the New York Times/Siena poll and Trump’s up 50%-48% in the Morning Consult survey, while Trump holds a 48%-47% edge in the Thursday CNN/SSRS poll (margin of error 4.7), and he’s up by a more substantial 51%-46% in the CES survey (2,663 respondents). Trump leads by 1.5 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Michigan: Harris and Trump are tied at 47% in the New York Times/Siena survey, though Harris is up 49%-48% in a Morning Consult poll and 51%-48% in the Marist poll along with three other surveys that found Harris in the lead, while Trump has a rare lead in a Washington Post poll released Thursday that shows him up 47%-45% among registered voters and he’s ahead 49%-48% in an Emerson survey released Tuesday (margin of error 3 points). Harris is up by 0.7 points in Michigan in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Wisconsin: Harris is ahead 49%-47% in the New York Times/Siena poll, 50%-48% in the Marist survey, 50%-47% in the CES poll (1,542 respondents), 51%-45% in the CNN/SSRS poll and 50%-49% in a Marquette poll, while Trump has a roughly one-point lead (rounded to 48%-48%) according to Morning Consult, Trump is up 49% to 48% in an Emerson survey, and the two candidates are tied at 48% in a Quinnipiac poll. Harris is up 0.8 points in FiveThirtyEight’s average.
Nevada: The New York Times/Siena poll shows Harris leading Trump 49%-46%, while the Emerson poll released Friday found Harris ahead 48%-47% (margin of error 3.6 points) and she’s up 51%-47% in the CES survey (933 respondents), though Trump is ahead 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS survey released Tuesday (margin of error 4.6 points). Trump is ahead 0.7 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Arizona: Trump leads 49%-45% in the New York Times/Siena poll, he’s up 51%-47% in the CES survey (2,066 respondents), and he leads 50%-49% in a Marist poll released Oct. 24 (margin of error 3.7) and 49%-46% in a Washington Post-Schar School poll (margin of error 5), while Morning Consult shows a 48%-48% tie, and Harris leads 48%-47% in a CNN/SSRS poll out this week (margin of error 4.4). Trump is up 2.6 points in FiveThirtyEight’s polling average.
Big Number
1 point. That’s Harris’ lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average.
Tangent
Harris has a 49%-48% lead among voters across all seven battlegrounds, according to a new HarrisX/Forbes poll out Thursday, a statistical tie—but 14% of swing state voters are still weighing their options, meaning there’s plenty of room for the race to shift.
Key Background
Harris became the Democratic nominee after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race on July 21, amid an intraparty revolt in the wake of his debate performance—shifting Democrats’ fortunes dramatically. Prior to the shift, polls consistently found Trump would beat Biden in most battleground states, despite Biden winning six of the seven (with the exception of North Carolina) in the 2020 election.
Further Reading
Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Harris Holds Onto Lead In 4 New Polls (Forbes)
Michigan 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Leads Narrowly In One Of Her Most Important State (Forbes)
Pennsylvania 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has Less Than 1-Point Lead In Polling Averages (Forbes)
North Carolina 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Near Tie In The New 7th Swing State (Forbes)
Georgia 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Most Surveys Show Trump Ahead In Crucial Swing State (Forbes)
Nevada 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Harris Has A Narrow Lead—But Struggles With Latino Voters (Forbes)
Wisconsin 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Latest Surveys Show Trump With Slight Edge (Forbes)
Arizona 2024 Trump-Harris Polls: Trump Holds Advantage In Latest Swing State Poll (Forbes)
