White Sox outfielder Luis Robert Jr. might not be producing offensively at the level both himself and his team expected at the beginning of the season, but the one area of his game where he has lived up to the hype in 2025 has been on the basepaths. Robert already has a career-high 31 stolen bases but he’s priced as high as +450 to steal a base on Sunday against the Royals after going eight games without attempting a steal. However, we’re jumping on the buy-low opportunity here and using Robert to steal a base as one of our top MLB player props with 15 games on the Sunday MLB schedule. If you’re interested in MLB betting and wish to use the best sportsbook promos to wager on MLB props on Aug. 17, check out all available offers below:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It enters Week 21 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 31-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning over 56 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns.
Best Saturday MLB player prop picks for Sunday, Aug. 17:
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Best MLB player props on Sunday
For more real-time, free sportsbook picks every day: Inside the Lines Blog.
Luis Robert Jr., White Sox, over 0.5 stolen bases (+450)
In his eight games without a stolen base, Robert has only managed four base hits and has only walked twice, so the fact that he hasn’t been running is directly tied to those struggles at the plate. During a nine-game hitting streak prior to that, Robert stole five bases and while Royals catcher Salvador Perez has cut down 12 of 25 would-be base-stealers this season, he’s generally struggled in that category later in his career. He only caught 20 of 91 attempted base-stealers combined in 2023 and 2024. Our model sets Robert’s line to steal a base at +238, creating plenty of value on Robert to steal with DraftKings listing this price and offering $200 in bonus bets and over $200 off NFL Sunday Ticket to new users.
Andrew Abbott, Reds, over 4.5 total strikeouts (+126)
The 26-year-old lefty has been exceptional so far this season, as he enters his start on Sunday with a 2.41 ERA and 105 strikeouts over 123 innings. He struck out six in his last start against the Phillies and has managed at least five strikeouts in 13 of his 21 starts overall this season. You can buy this line down to as low as 3.5 at some books, but FanDuel is offering the best price at 4.5 here and you can also get $300 in bonus bets if your first $5 wager wins.
Nick Kurtz, Athletics, over 0.5 home runs (+450)
It’s only been a little over a year since he was drafted, but Kurtz already looks like one of baseball’s best young power hitters. He’s slashing .306/.387/.628 with 24 home runs and 65 RBI in 83 games since being called up in late-April and this will be the third time that he’s faced Angles righty Jose Soriano already. He’s only 1-for-6 in the previous two matchups, but his one hit did go for extra bases with an exit velocity of 105.0 mph and he did have a second batted-ball off Soriano at 105.3 mph for an out. The model sets Kurtz’s line to homer at +251 but you can find this listed price from BetMGM and get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses as a new user.
MLB Home Run, Stolen Base, Strikeout Cheat Sheet
The SportsLine Model was developed and is powered by the Inside the Lines team. You can find all of the team’s picks and content at our blog, which has all our personal best bets for free. The system is simple. We take the strongest SportsLine Model projected values vs the best available prices at the time we publish our content. In most cases, lines move in ‘our direction’ so you should bookmark the blog, follow us on social, and make it a habit of checking for updates throughout the day to maximize your expected value.
The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.
Andrew Abbott is starting for Cincinnati who is looking to end Milwaukee’s amazing winning streak. The Reds are only winning 44% of our simulations but Abbott is averaging nearly 5 Ks which is what he has averaged on the season. Despite having a 4.7 avg at home (5.4 in road starts) his over 4.5 is 8-4 at home (5-4 on the road). He has gone 6+ innings in 5 of his last 6 starts (5.1 in the one) with 4 quality starts. BetRivers is offering a line of 3.5 (-165 over). You can get 4.5 at +130 on Fanatics and we do like +$$$ on a line under our projection and a player’s historical average, even in tough matchups.
More MLB picks for Sunday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Sunday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on a 98-90-1 roll (+1495) on MLB picks.
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