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The College Football Playoff is officially expanding from 12 to 24 teams starting next season.
BYU head coach Kalani Sitake just wishes it were coming one season sooner.
“I wish it were 24 this year,” Sitake said. “I think there’s a lot of interest, and there’s a lot of people that were against it, but most of the … people that are against it are people that aren’t even in the business.”
It’s easy to see why he’d like the expanded playoff to arrive immediately.
If that were the case, Sitake’s Cougars (7-2; 4-2 Big 12) would be sitting pretty with three games left in the season.
BYU only took a small tumble in Tuesday’s College Football Playoff rankings after losing to Utah, dropping from No. 9 to No. 10.
In a 24-team playoff, BYU would be safely in. In the 12-team version? Well, the Cougars are on the bubble.
But the committee made it clear on Tuesday: BYU’s playoff dreams are far from dashed.
And the Cougars even have a couple of different routes to get there.
Big 12 champion
The conference champion will get an automatic spot in the playoff. But BYU will need some help to reach the title game on Dec. 4 in Arlington, Texas.
BYU is currently third in the conference standings with two losses. The Cougars will need Texas Tech to lose at least one game down the stretch, or the Utes to drop two of their final three contests to have a chance.
The clearest route — i.e., the most probable of the improbable — is for BYU to win out, while Texas Tech loses to Oklahoma State and Houston loses to Baylor.
That scenario would likely leave the Cougars as the No. 2 team in the conference and set up a rematch with Utah in Texas.
That’s far from the only scenario that would get BYU to Arlington — the Cougars would actually be in pretty good tiebreaker shape if the Utes happen to lose their remaining two road games — though those become increasingly less likely.
At-large bid
Interestingly enough, it might be better for the Cougars not to make the conference championship game. Yeah, yeah, fans have heard that teams aren’t punished for these, but if BYU gets to Arlington and loses, that third loss might keep them out of at-large consideration.
And after the committee ranked the Cougars at No. 10 — well, why take the risk?
ESPN’s playoff predictor gives the Cougars a 98% chance of making the tournament if they win out and don’t make the championship game. That drops to 75% if they lose in the title game.
The main reason: BYU’s win over No. 5 Notre Dame. That victory in October could be the best win in college football when all is said and done.
And it’s proof that the Cougars can compete with the nation’s best. When a team has a win like that on its résumé, the committee is more likely to forgive head-scratching losses — like BYU’s loss to UCF.
If Notre Dame keeps winning, the Irish could pull the Cougars right into the field, too — as long as BYU looks the part in the final three weeks of the season.
The point is, Sitake might not have to wait until next season. Still, he’s glad things are changing.
“I think it’s a good idea,” Sitake said of the expanded playoff. “I mean, you’re looking at percentages of teams that play, and then how many can make it to a tournament … and this makes sense to expand it that way. The numbers now are a little bit closer to what all the other sports are doing as well. I think it’s a good move.”
