The Bruins have a clear reason to watch the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery: Toronto’s conditional first-round pick.
The Maple Leafs enter the lottery with the fifth-best odds, including an 8.5 percent chance to win the first lottery draw. But for Boston, the key detail is the protection on that pick. Under the terms of the March 2025 trade between Toronto and Boston, if the Maple Leafs’ 2026 first-round pick ends up in the top five after the lottery, Toronto does not send that pick to the Bruins. Instead, Toronto would transfer its 2027 or 2028 first-round pick to Boston.
That means Bruins fans are not just watching to see who lands No. 1 overall. They are watching to see whether Toronto’s pick stays protected or slides far enough for Boston to get it in 2026.
For the Bruins, the easiest way to explain it is:
- If Toronto wins the lottery and jumps to No. 1 or No. 2: the pick stays protected, and Boston waits.
- If Toronto stays at No. 5: the pick also stays protected, and Boston waits.
- If another team jumps ahead and pushes Toronto outside the top five: that is the result that could send the 2026 pick to Boston.
How the NHL Draft Lottery odds work
The lottery determines the order for the first 16 picks of the first round. It includes teams that missed the Stanley Cup Playoffs, as well as teams that acquired those first-round draft slots through trades. The lottery is held in two phases: one drawing for the No. 1 pick and another for the No. 2 pick.
There is also an important limit: teams can only move up a maximum of 10 spots. Because of that, only the top 11 teams in the lottery order are eligible to receive the No. 1 overall pick.
The Canucks have the best chance to win the first lottery draw at 18.5 percent, but their actual odds of receiving the No. 1 pick are listed at 25.5 percent because of the NHL’s 10-spot move-up rule. If certain lower-seeded teams win the draw but cannot jump all the way to No. 1, Vancouver can still end up with the top pick.
The top of the lottery order looks like this:
- Vancouver Canucks: 18.5 percent chance to win first draw; 25.5 percent chance to receive No. 1
- Chicago Blackhawks: 13.5 percent
- New York Rangers: 11.5 percent
- Calgary Flames: 9.5 percent
- Toronto Maple Leafs’ pick: 8.5 percent, conditional to Boston
| Teams | Odds | Combinations (out of 1,000) |
|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Canucks | 18.5% | 185 |
| Chicago Blackhawks | 13.5% | 135 |
| New York Rangers | 11.5% | 115 |
| Calgary Flames | 9.5% | 95 |
| Toronto Maple Leafs (cond. to BOS)* | 8.5% | 85 |
| Seattle Kraken | 7.5% | 75 |
| Winnipeg Jets | 6.5% | 65 |
| Florida Panthers | 6.0% | 60 |
| San Jose Sharks | 5.0% | 50 |
| Nashville Predators | 3.5% | 35 |
| St. Louis Blues | 3.0% | 30 |
| New Jersey Devils | 2.5% | 25 |
| New York Islanders | 2.0% | 20 |
| Columbus Blue Jackets | 1.5% | 15 |
| St. Louis Blues (from DET) | 0.5% | 5 |
| Washington Capitals | 0.5% | 5 |
* If Toronto’s first-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft is a top-five pick following the Lottery, Toronto will instead transfer its 2027 or 2028 first-round pick to Boston.
What Bruins fans should root for
For Boston, the best-case scenario is not Toronto landing a top pick. It is Toronto getting pushed out of the top five.
That could happen if a team behind the Maple Leafs in the lottery order jumps ahead of them. Teams like the Seattle Kraken, Winnipeg Jets, Florida Panthers, San Jose Sharks, Nashville Predators or St. Louis Blues moving up would matter to Boston because it could knock Toronto down from No. 5 to No. 6 or lower.
That would change the Bruins’ outlook in a big way.
Instead of waiting until 2027 or 2028 for Toronto’s first-rounder, Boston could get a 2026 pick in the top half of the first round. For a Bruins team trying to reshape its roster and add more young talent, that would be a valuable asset.
