Texas coach Steve Sarkisian didn’t think it appropriate to talk about whether his Longhorns deserve a spot in the College Football Playoff until after Friday’s game against Texas A&M.
“I think the moment you start putting energy into things that are out of our control, then you miss what’s right in front of us,” Sarkisian said Monday. “This is too big of a game, too special of an opportunity.
“If we’re fortunate enough to win the game, I’ll talk about that after the game because I think that would be a better platform.”
Frankly, that was the right decision because there’s no real point for the Longhorns or their coach to waste time talking hypotheticals that won’t mean anything if they can’t upset No. 3 A&M and hand the Aggies their first loss of the season.
It might be a waste of Sarkisian’s valuable time on this busy Thanksgiving week that has already been shortened by a Friday game. But with Texas ranked No. 16 in this week’s CFP rankings, it’s hard not to let your mind wander.
If the Longhorns finish 9-3, they’ll be firmly on the College Football Playoff bubble with a pretty convincing resume.
Texas’ three losses may be better than any other team’s. The Florida loss isn’t great, and no one is denying that. But losses to No. 3 Ohio State and No. 5 Georgia are easy to understand.
Plus, Texas already beat Oklahoma when the Sooners were ranked No. 6 and Vanderbilt when Commodores were ranked No. 9. With a win over No. 3 A&M, the Longhorns would have more wins over teams ranked in the top 10 at the time than any other team in the nation.
If quality wins, quality losses and strength of schedule really do factor heavily into the committee members’ decisions, Texas may catch their eye.
The committee is also often guilty of recency bias. A rout of Arkansas followed up by a win over a top-five rival would paint Texas favorably. The committee could easily forget that Texas didn’t quite resemble a playoff team when it faced Florida, Kentucky or Mississippi State as long as it does at DKR against the Aggies on Friday.
There is a path for Texas to the 12-team field, but even with a win Friday, the Longhorns may still need some help. Last week, Texas got that help when Oregon beat USC, and Pitt beat Georgia Tech — two teams ahead of it in the rankings.
Assuming the ACC champion and Group of Five champion are outside the top 12, Texas would need to finish in the top 10 in the final rankings to make the College Football Playoff. Fifteen one- or two-loss teams are currently ranked higher.
It’s hard to imagine the committee selecting a three-loss SEC team over a two-loss one like Oklahoma or Vanderbilt, even if Texas has the head-to-head advantage. But would they select a three-loss Texas team over a two-loss team from the Big 12 (BYU or Utah) or ACC (Miami)? Last year, they didn’t when 9-3 Alabama was the first team out, and a two-loss SMU made the field. Does the committee have regrets after seeing Penn State demolish SMU in the first round? This Texas team also has a more convincing résumé than that Alabama team did.
The last two weeks before Selection Sunday will determine the Longhorns’ fate, but the door to the postseason will remain slightly ajar if Texas can do what no other opponent has when facing the Aggies this year.
“The season’s not done,” Sarkisian said on ABC after Saturday’s win over Arkansas. ”You never know what can happen.”
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